The Economist - Houseprices

[Luke GuyStalker]

I've always trusted that this particular publication has fairly intelligent, educated writers. OK, some of the views can be a little off-centre but generally, I think they know what they're talking about.

Now regarding house prices, there's an interesting article here.

www.economist.com/opinion...id=4079027

My question is this.....Have these guys got it right (as I suspect) with a correction now a certainty?
And before anyone (SB) tries to launch into the Owners V Renters moronoc rambling, I'm renting by choice and putting away 50K per year to buy for cash (as per milans advice)

Now that I have over 200k, I could easily buy a place (not anywhere near as nice as the kind of place I can rent) but it really does seem to me that it'd be mad to. There's much higher risk of downward movement in prices than a continuing rise.

Thoughts?

[sasguru]

..

>> Thoughts?

Stop stalking guys. Girls are much more fun.

[DimPrawn]

We don't talk about house prices anymore. The newbies here find it too upsetting.

[ZitMeister]

The statistically insignificant one would class this as another pointless CUK post as opposed to his inane ramblings on willies
But the article in the Sunday Times in my previous post seems to be based on the same data as this one.

All the indicators point to a correction ( sounds better than a crash).
If your in no hurry to buy I'd wait

[sasguru]

Ouch!

>> The statistically insignificant one would class this as another pointless CUK post as opposed to his inane ramblings on willies

Touche, mon ami!:lol

[rootsnall]

I'm sitting on a similar cash pile and looking to upgrade from a semi to a bigger pad. I think you might have to be very patient, it won't just crash overnight, the last 'correction' took years to become nasty and this one won't get nasty until we have a proper recession. When that will be is anybody's guess !?

[NumptyCorner]

All the indicators point to a correction ( sounds better than a crash).

As they did 5 years, when alot of people were giving the same advice. Since then loads of people of made fortunes in property while others have looked on.

[sasguru]

OK I'll play

I read both articles carefully. If I remember rightly they quoted research on 16 house price booms over the last century, only 6 of which changed to busts. The jury is very much out on this.

My opinion is that if the US economy manages to keep growing then a bust is not on the cards. All the economic data in the past few years show we effectively behave like an American state economically.

[sasguru]

House prices

Another point is that there won't be any rises either for at leat 5 years till earnings have caught up a bit. But I doubt that people are going to suddenly start panic selling, although there is likely to be a rise in repossesions

[NumptyCorner]

Re: House prices

My guess is houses will fall by up to 20% in the next 2 years. Bargain hunters and 1st time buyers will re-enter the market causing another mini boom toward 2008 this one will be fairly short lived. We won't see big gains gain until the next decade.