Brrrrrrrrrrrr

[pjclarke]

Oh No - more graphs!

C'mon, Blaster you can do better than that...

Arctic sea ice extent in January 2012 averaged 13.73 million square kilometers (5.30 million square miles). This is the fourth-lowest January ice extent in the 1979 to 2012 satellite data record, 1.10 million square kilometers (425,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average extent.

As in December, ice extent was lower than normal on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, especially in the Barents Sea. However, on the other side of the Arctic, ice extent in the Bering Sea was much greater than average, reaching the second-highest levels for January in the satellite record. The greater-than-normal ice extent in the Bering Sea partly compensated for low ice extent on the Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean, but ice extent as a whole remained far below average.

US NSIDC



The Arctic ocean is largely enclosed and basically freezes over each winter - so the maximum ice extent in winter shows much less variation than the minimum in September. But it is the minimum that is significant for climatic reasons, as open sea absorbs about 90% of incoming radiation, while sea ice reflects about 90%. So how is the September trend looking?




You guys really are deep in denial aren't you?

[BlasterBates]

Does anyone remember what the climate scientists were saying about Australia.


It's not drought, it's climate change, say scientists

''It's reasonable to say that a lot of the current drought of the last 12 to 13 years is due to ongoing global warming,''

In the minds of a lot of people, the rainfall we had in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s was a benchmark. A lot of our [water and agriculture] planning was done during that time. But we are just not going to have that sort of good rain again as long as the system is warming up.''

That's interesting so in 2009 Australia won't possibly get good rain again because of climate change, they said.

So what's happening a few years later ?

2011 Australia's second wettest year on record

Must be a fluke musn't it?



Heavy rain and flooding in Australia

What other predictions have you for us pj...2012 the hottest year ever?

[pjclarke]

A tad selective there BB. From a 'he said -she said' opinion piece you lift one rather extemist quote but not this one ...

...not all experts agree. Murray-Darling Basin Authority chief Rob Freeman told a water summit in Melbourne last week he believed the extreme climate patterns that have dried out south-east Australia would not prove to be permanent.

''Some commentators say this is the new future. I think that is an extreme position and probably a position that's not helpful to take,'' he said, expressing confidence that wetter times would return.

And from the AUS Met Office summary of the year you chose not to share this

Although annual temperatures in Australia were below average, globally it was the warmest La Niña year on record. In contrast to the national pattern, the southwest of Australia (including Perth) recorded its hottest year on record. Ocean temperatures around Australia continued to be well above average, with record temperatures recorded in parts of the eastern Indian Ocean. [...]

Globally, 2011 saw the 11th highest mean temperature on record according to data released by the World Meteorological Organization, with 13 of the warmest years on record having occurred in the past 15 years.

It must be tiring reading the news with one eye closed?

[BlasterBates]

A tad selective there BB. From a 'he said -she said' opinion piece you lift one rather extemist quote but not this one ...



And from the AUS Met Office summary of the year you chose not to share this


It must be tiring reading the news with one eye closed?

Yes there are sensible voices trouble is the scientists influential in the IPPC believe this cr*p

Monash University's Neville Nicholls, a lead author on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change who has also published on the subtropical ridge, said he believed the program's results were right.

Perhaps you would agree that most of the rest of the IPCC is equally cr*p.

[pjclarke]

Well here's an idea. Let's steer away from the popular press, and look at what IPCC regional report for Australia actualy says. Oh look - they projected a mean overall decrease in rainfall, but with increased extremes, both drought and flood.

A range of GCM and regional modelling studies in recent
years have identified a tendency for daily rainfall extremes
to increase under enhanced greenhouse conditions in the
Australian region Commonly, return periods of extreme rainfall events halve
in late 21st-century simulations. This tendency can apply
even when average rainfall is simulated to decrease, but not
necessarily when this decrease is marked (see Timbal, 2004). [..]
The downscaled extreme events for a range of return periods
compared well with observations and the enhanced greenhouse
simulations for 2040 showed increases of around 30% in magnitude,
with the 1-in-40 year event becoming the 1-in-15 year event.

Looks like we may be ahead of the curve ...

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-re...-chapter11.pdf Pg 899 onwards.

[BlasterBates]

Well here's an idea. Let's steer away from the popular press, and look at what IPCC regional report for Australia actualy says. Oh look - they projected a mean overall decrease in rainfall, but with increased extremes, both drought and flood.




Looks like we may be ahead of the curve ...

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-re...-chapter11.pdf Pg 899 onwards.

Can you back that up ? or is that just based on your impression from reading newspapers.

[Spacecadet]

Pg 899 onwards.

page 899!!!!

I think the phrase tl;dr was invented for this very topic

[pjclarke]

page 899!!!!

Yep. It's a several thousand page report. Something those squealing about the single factual error contained therein always fail to mention. Anyhoo that file/chapter starts at pg 849 so it's logical page 50. Not too hard, if you want to inform yourself about the science ....

[BlasterBates]

I see they're fiddling the sea level data because it doesn't fit.

Getting Envisat’s Mind Right | Real Science

It really is pathetic.

Global temps going down.
Arctic ice rising fast.
Sea levels going down.

The AGW mantra falls apart.

[BlasterBates]

Not too hard, if you want to inform yourself about the science ....

That's the last place you want to look if you want to inform yourself about science.