For all those who knock NL its reassuring to learn that UK exports are now at a record high .
Aha , but as the song says , It aint necessarily so ...
"At first glance, export growth appears to be surging, with exports of goods up 17.1% year-on-year in the first quarter, the highest pace since 1980. But don't start cheering yet. There is an underlying improvement in export growth but, rather than showing a rapid surge in the UK's export industry, the data really show a rapid surge in the UK's tax evasion industry.
In 2004, the tax authorities estimated VAT losses of £1.1bn-£1.9bn on fraud of £3.4bn. That could mean losses of £5bn for 2005 and double that for 2006. HMRC will not release its estimates for last year's losses until later this year but they are mounting.
Last month the ONS reported that VAT receipts in 2005/06 fell for the first time since the tax was introduced in 1973. Gordon Brown had pencilled in a rise of £3.5bn a year ago.
MTIC fraud works when someone imports goods, usually small and of high value, into Britain from another European Union country free of VAT. The trader then sells the goods on with the 17.5% VAT added to another trader, but then goes missing without handing the VAT on to Revenue & Customs. In a more sophisticated version, the goods get re-exported and re-imported again, with the VAT being reclaimed each time. This is known as "carousel" fraud.
Michael Saunders, economist at Citigroup in London, said: "At first glance, export growth appears to be surging, with exports of goods up 17.1% year-on-year in the first quarter, the highest pace since 1980. But don't start cheering yet. There is an underlying improvement in export growth but, rather than showing a rapid surge in the UK's export industry, the data really show a rapid surge in the UK's tax evasion industry.
"The data for both exports and imports are being inflated by a rapid rise in MTIC fraud."
Aha , but as the song says , It aint necessarily so ...
"At first glance, export growth appears to be surging, with exports of goods up 17.1% year-on-year in the first quarter, the highest pace since 1980. But don't start cheering yet. There is an underlying improvement in export growth but, rather than showing a rapid surge in the UK's export industry, the data really show a rapid surge in the UK's tax evasion industry.
In 2004, the tax authorities estimated VAT losses of £1.1bn-£1.9bn on fraud of £3.4bn. That could mean losses of £5bn for 2005 and double that for 2006. HMRC will not release its estimates for last year's losses until later this year but they are mounting.
Last month the ONS reported that VAT receipts in 2005/06 fell for the first time since the tax was introduced in 1973. Gordon Brown had pencilled in a rise of £3.5bn a year ago.
MTIC fraud works when someone imports goods, usually small and of high value, into Britain from another European Union country free of VAT. The trader then sells the goods on with the 17.5% VAT added to another trader, but then goes missing without handing the VAT on to Revenue & Customs. In a more sophisticated version, the goods get re-exported and re-imported again, with the VAT being reclaimed each time. This is known as "carousel" fraud.
Michael Saunders, economist at Citigroup in London, said: "At first glance, export growth appears to be surging, with exports of goods up 17.1% year-on-year in the first quarter, the highest pace since 1980. But don't start cheering yet. There is an underlying improvement in export growth but, rather than showing a rapid surge in the UK's export industry, the data really show a rapid surge in the UK's tax evasion industry.
"The data for both exports and imports are being inflated by a rapid rise in MTIC fraud."
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