You couldn't make this stuff up... Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) advising the Treasury Select Committee on how we can use the 'snow' to avert a double dip!
Snow could avert double-dip recession
Snow could avert double-dip recession
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said that a bout of severe weather before the end of year could skew economic activity in such a way that Britain does not experience two quarters of negative growth.
Sir Stephen Nickell, a member of the OBR, told MPs that disruption such as that caused by heavy snow tends to delay economic activity rather than prevent it.
That would mean that if the British economy is serious disrupted in the current quarter, economic activity would be displaced to the first quarter of 2012, Sir Stephen told the Treasury Select Committee.
“If you have a huge bout of heavy snow before Christmas that will probably rule out a double-dip recession because GDP will fall in the fourth quarter and bounce back in the first quarter,” Sir Stephen said.
However, he warned that disruption in the New Year would mean that the statistical masking of the slowdown could not take place. “It’s got to snow in the fourth quarter,” he said.
“If you have a huge bout of heavy snow before Christmas that will probably rule out a double-dip recession because GDP will fall in the fourth quarter and bounce back in the first quarter,” Sir Stephen said.
However, he warned that disruption in the New Year would mean that the statistical masking of the slowdown could not take place. “It’s got to snow in the fourth quarter,” he said.
