What if man made climate change

[pjclarke]

Oh dear

No change in global temps for about 12 or 15 years,

Not a reality-based statement

Of course 30 years ago the scientific literature was saying there would be an ice age. So you could have posted exactly the same thing 30 years ago

Not a reality-based statement, there were a few stories in the press, and some Pop Sci books, but the majority of scientific papers were predicting warming. See this scientific study by the American Met. Society (as opposed to the Daily Mail Online, for example)

During the period from 1965 through 1979, our literature survey found 7 cooling, 20 neutral, and 44 warming papers.

and compare with the position now

The 928 papers were divided into six categories: explicit endorsement of the consensus position, evaluation of impacts, mitigation proposals, methods, paleoclimate analysis, and rejection of the consensus position. Of all the papers, 75% fell into the first three categories, either explicitly or implicitly accepting the consensus view; 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate, taking no position on current anthropogenic climate change. Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed with the consensus position

Currently global temperatures below the average of the last 30 years, and dropping, and the hot 2010 was actually cooler than 1998, doesn't seem like global warming to me.

May I politely suggest you purchase a book on basic statistics? I seem to remember somebody advising that long term trends are more important than cherry-picked warm (or 'cool') years....

[Churchill]

Was he, I thought he was a German who went to Septicland.

He was mate, born in Ulm. Grew up in Munich.

[BlasterBates]

May I politely suggest you purchase a book on basic statistics? I seem to remember somebody advising that long term trends are more important than cherry-picked warm (or 'cool') years....

How much has it warmed since 2002 using a 5 year moving average?

The hockey stick we used to be confronted with in the 90's looks more like table top mountain these days.

The AGW argument would have far more credence had the warming not stopped as predicted by the natural cycle camp. It has levelled off over the last 12 years, so you have to use statistics to demonstrate some trend.There's far more CO2 in the atomsphere than there was 12 years ago. So why has it not accelerated?

"There are lies, damned lies and statistics"

By the way the number of people who believe in AGW has dwindled since we started this discussion.

[EternalOptimist]

listen you two, i said sceptic not septic.

anyway did you know he was killed by the mafia, because he knew too much

[Doggy Styles]

anyway did you know he was killed by the mafia, because he knew too much

He couldn't remember his own telephone number.

Did you know he was one of the Clever Bastards, along with Noel Coward and one or two others?

[sasguru]

It has levelled off over the last 12 years, so you have to use statistics to demonstrate some trend..

That statement betrays such a profound ignorance of science and statistics as to make you a laughing stock.
I've noticed before that the usual suspects: BB, DP, EO, SB et. al. are not the sharpest tools in the box. This is not an ad hominem attack , just an objective observation that the less cognitively able usually just spout tulipe without really understanding the issues.
As the above statement proves.

[BlasterBates]

So how much has it warmed sasguru?

Demonstate that superior intellect of yours.

Hows the gardening centre? Are you still giving IT support to the hedge traders.

[BlasterBates]

Climate facts to warm to | The Australian

The head of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has actually acknowledged it. He talks about the apparent plateau in temperatures so far this century. So he recognises that in this century, over the past eight years, temperatures have plateaued ... This is not what you'd expect, as I said, because if carbon dioxide is driving temperature then you'd expect that, given carbon dioxide levels have been continuing to increase, temperatures should be going up ... So (it's) very unexpected, not something that's being discussed. It should be being discussed, though, because it's very significant.

BlasterBates 10 sasguru 0 (as usual)

QED.

Sometimes sasguru you give the impression of being as thick as pigsh*t.

I'm sure you aren't.

Why don't you demonstrate it.

[sasguru]

I suggest BB that you follow PJ's advice and bone up on some basic principles of statistics. Otherwise you cannot really contribute to the debate and are reduced to selectively quoting from obscure right-wing papers who selectively quote from obscure academics.

The climate debate is essentially about the interpretation of raw data and the discipline concerned with drawing valid conclusions from raw data is statistics. Statistics is essentially applied probability which in turn requires some facility with mathematics. It takes years to become an effective statistician.

So you see why I think that what some second rate IT jobbers have to to say on the subject is essentially bollux.

[pjclarke]

The head of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has actually acknowledged it. He talks about the apparent plateau in temperatures so far this century.

The quote is from Jennifer Marohasy, a biologist interviewed in 'The Australian' an outlet famous for it's War on Science. . She seems to be referring to this Reuters article

which does indeed have Pachauri saying

Rajendra Pachauri, the head of the U.N. Panel that shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, said he would look into the apparent temperature plateau so far this century.

But what's this? The article is three years old and in the same piece Amir Delju, senior scientific coordinator of the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) climate program points out

...temperatures would have to be flat for several more years before a lack of new record years became significant.

And of course, in fact we only had to wait until 2010 for a new record year to come along.

Speaking of statistics, there is a professional statistician who blogs under the name 'Tamino' and who recently compared actual global temperatures since 2000 with those one would expect if global warming is proceeding as predicted. The big red dot is 2010.



Can anyone spot the 'plateau'? The 'cooling'?