What's in store for the housing market in 2006?

[wendigo100]

I don't think that's quite true. Immigrants probably use the poor housing stock that locals wouldn't use anyway. Anyway the rate of house price inflation over the last 10 years does not correlate statistically with the no. of immigrants coming in.

Wendigo have you been to the Chico school of logic?

OK, first point. There is something called the ripple effect. The cheapest homes are unavailable, so people who would normally live there are forced to move up to the second level, those at the second level are forced to move up, and so on through the whole pyramid.

Secondly, house price inflation does in fact correlate pretty closely with net immigration over the past 10 years. As immigration has gone up, so has house price inflation. House prices have slowed down over the past few months, which is hardly surprising as more and more people reach their limits for personal debt, but while there are more "customers" being generated for homes than are being built new, they are less likely to go down.

HTH again.

[wc2]

Notice how the likes of Halifax & Nationwide predict an increase. wonder why.

WC thinks it's all going to crash - All the chavs are going to find out that their 2up 2down house is now worthless and really should not have borrowed against it to buy an electric blue BMW.

[sasguru]

OK, first point. There is something called the ripple effect. The cheapest homes are unavailable, so people who would normally live there are forced to move up to the second level, those at the second level are forced to move up, and so on through the whole pyramid.

Secondly, house price inflation does in fact correlate pretty closely with net immigration over the past 10 years. As immigration has gone up, so has house price inflation. House prices have slowed down over the past few months, which is hardly surprising as more and more people reach their limits for personal debt, but while there are more "customers" being generated for homes than are being built new, they are less likely to go down.

HTH again.

Immigration may be a factor but I reckon it's a minor one. Why did the other housing booms occur then? Here are some points.

(1) There was liitle immigration in the late 80s and previous housing booms
(2) The excessive house price inflation of present times is happening (synchronised) in many countries including the US, Canada, Spain, and the Netherlands. None of the last 2 countries have allowed in a massive influx of immigrants (the Netherlands is actually deporting some). Germany has had an influx, but has house price deflation.
(3) The proportion of immigrants has increased as a proportion of the genral population by only about 4%, most of whom are concentrated in well defined and established ethnic areas in the inner cities. How does that lead to house price increases in the rural areas?

But hey, why let the facts get in the way eh?

HTH

[wendigo100]

Immigration may be a factor but I reckon it's a minor one.

I never said it was the only factor, I never even said that it was the main factor. But now that you have conceded that it may be a factor, my job is done.

[Ivor1]

They use them. It might be renting, squatting or on benefits. The point is, that leaves less for everyone else, making the remaining housing stock more expensive.

HTH

So ******* true. We get shafted in the UK, so fecked off with it.

[shaunbhoy]

People are also seeing investment in property as a very viable alternative to pouring money into pension funds that might be, essentially, snatched away. The decisions by Rentokil and the Co-Op for example to start dismantling Final Salary Pension schemes being cases in point.

[AlfredJPruffock]

People are also seeing investment in property as a very viable alternative to pouring money into pension funds that might be, essentially, snatched away. The decisions by Rentokil and the Co-Op for example to start dismantling Final Salary Pension schemes being cases in point.

Good point SB.

I have no pension fund whatsoever,the Pruffock Mansions and assets such as HMS Offshore and Pruffocks secret treasure chest from my Euro smashngrabs will suffice .

Work till you drop I say.

Anyway I have no aims to retire, who wants to sit in front of the telly with their slippers for eternity ?

Bah .

I shall be tuning pianos and flogging them in my Sunset Years, thats about two years from now.


PS What went wrong with the Clyde game?

[shaunbhoy]

What went wrong with the Clyde game?

In brief, the first 90 minutes coupled with the result!!


Anyway, all in the past now. Our attentions are fixed firmly on the SPL title, and the portents are peachy!!

[AlfredJPruffock]

In brief, the first 90 minutes coupled with the result!!


Anyway, all in the past now. Our attentions are fixed firmly on the SPL title, and the portents are peachy!!

Aye SB

Mind you I do have a soft spot for Clyde I used to frequent Shawfield years ago and remember watching Pat Nevin play for Clyde, I said to my brother that player has potential.

Its tough when you support Clyde or in my case Hamilton Accies,watching your team getting beat most weeks in the drizzling rain, so remember Celtic will win loads of competitions in the future, so it was a night of dissapointment for Celtic but soon will be forgotten, but for Clyde that will be a night to remember for always.

Now I was a Celtic supporter until about 1978, and I remember travelling to Hampden with my Partick Thistle mates to watch the Leauge Cup Final around 1973ish, do you remember that one, Celtic were four nil down at half time !

Mind you I was happy for my Thistle mates as this was their moment of Nirvanah, the next week I went with them to Firhill as Celtic were playing Thistle again in the leauge, this time the Tic won 7.1 or was it seven nil?

[stackpole]

Yes SB, lots of things have changed to keep prices up since the last house price boom and bust. Lower interest rates, more public jobs to counter some of the private sector job losses, more people coming into the country, new money from the BTL market, etc etc.

One thing does concern me though, and that is the bubble.

In "real terms", personal and national debt is very high and rising, and people's savings are low and going down (especially pension funds). So, if we have a bust tomorrow, would it be enough to bring down some big financial institutions, which could snowball into the biggest bust we've ever had?