How historically accurate are election projections based on polls?

[VectraMan]

Yet even they can fall. In 1992 Cheltenham, that bastion of retired Colonels and GCHQ spies, went from Tory to LibDem - the first time Cheltenham had been represented by a non-Conservative (allowing for some Independent Conservatives) since 1906, as far as I can determine. (A Liberal Baronet won in December 1910, but was "unseated by petition" - not sure how that works...)

I'm not sure how much Chelteneham would have been considered a safe seat. It's a city, and has it's fair share of dole scroungers and council estates as well as the traditional posh image. I'd bet all the surrounding rural areas are safe Tory seats, which is probably where the retired colonels and spies actually live. (It's the same in Oxfordshire, which is all Tory safe seats, except for Oxford which has one Labour and one LibDem MP).

I guess all this comes down to how much people are prepared to vote tactically. If they ignore the crazyness of the voting system and what's going on in their local area, then the BBC's predicter ought to be pretty accurate. And I think most either don't really understand the system, or at least can't be bothered with trying to understand the system, and will just vote for the leader.

[threaded]

I'd bet all the surrounding rural areas are safe Tory seats, which is probably where the retired colonels and spies actually live.

I guess you're supposing the pay is much higher than it actually is...

[gingerjedi]

I guess you're supposing the pay is much higher than it actually is...

You're right, GCHQ permy pay is quite pathetic yet they pay contractors vast sums to keep them interested. If they cleared more people they'd soon realise they're paying way more than they need to.

[NoddY]

The Tory candidate in 1992 was black. That explains the move to the Lib Dems; making the situation exceptional.

I agree with Gonzo, the country is geographically polarised. There is little geographical mixing amongst the classes and across age ranges. The 'typical' market town is becoming a thing of the past.

[Pickle2]

The Tory candidate in 1992 was black. That explains the move to the Lib Dems; making the situation exceptional.

That tells you a lot about the core Tory vote. They'd rather a liberal than vote for a black man!!

Lets just hope the "bigots" dont get back in eh?

[Green Mango]

That tells you a lot about the core Tory vote. They'd rather a liberal than vote for a black man!!

Lets just hope the "bigots" dont get back in eh?

Well I know lots of Labour voters - racists and bigots to a man.

[Pickle2]

Well I know lots of Labour voters - racists and bigots to a man.

so you'll be voting lib-dem then?