How close are you to retirement?

[milanbenes]

could I say I am semi-retired ?

based upon the conditions of my contract extension, from now on I will do a four day week

Milan.

[Tarquin Farquhar]

The problem with my particular speciality is that the challenges no longer exist. The market has become flooded with contractors who are willing to lie to get a contract, and who have no problem accepting rock-bottom rates. This situation is not helped by clueless clientcos who are unable to recognize good talent. They operate purely on rate alone.

As a consequence of this change in the marketplace, expectations of everyone involved in the whole chain (clients, agencies, contractors) have been altered to the point where I no longer have the motivation or enthusiasm to continue doing what I have been doing for most of my working life.

What else can I do? I don't know.

Did you write that, or did I? That's exactly how I feel. It's not just the ups and downs of rates and contracts, the whole thing has just gone and I don't ant to be part of it any more.

[cojak]

Then why hasn't your login been revoked

If that happened we'd lose 50% of our regulars (you know who you are!).

[cojak]

I'm actually pretty content not doing much all day! I could happily continue not doing much forever.

The problem with my particular speciality is that the challenges no longer exist. The market has become flooded with contractors who are willing to lie to get a contract, and who have no problem accepting rock-bottom rates. This situation is not helped by clueless clientcos who are unable to recognize good talent. They operate purely on rate alone.

As a consequence of this change in the marketplace, expectations of everyone involved in the whole chain (clients, agencies, contractors) have been altered to the point where I no longer have the motivation or enthusiasm to continue doing what I have been doing for most of my working life.

What else can I do? I don't know.

<this is my secret worry for my sector>

[Tarquin Farquhar]

<this is my secret worry for my sector>

I think it's all of us.

[rootsnall]

I think it's all of us.

WTS.

Jobs and rates have always come back in past. The Indian factor might make it different this time but if sterling is also stuffed there must be a point at which supply and demand will sort things out.

Toolpusher, what size of warchest have you got to be able to retire at 42 !? I'm tight but with two youngish kids I reckon you need 30K a year minimum to tick over, so very rough calc says you need a million plus tucked away.

[Tarquin Farquhar]

WTS.

Jobs and rates have always come back in past. The Indian factor might make it different this time but if sterling is also stuffed there must be a point at which supply and demand will sort things out.

Toolpusher, what size of warchest have you got to be able to retire at 42 !? I'm tight but with two youngish kids I reckon you need 30K a year minimum to tick over, so very rough calc says you need a million plus tucked away.

I think the Indian factor has killed it this time. Even if offshoring turns out not to be as cheap as expected, the market has been commoditised and the price expectation has been set low. Even irrationally, clients will keep projects on hold rather than pay a rate higher than what they think is "the market rate". If someone tells them it's £125 a day, thene even if they work out that a distant development team will not do it right, they will turn round and expect us to do it for that rate too.

I think your calc is too rough. Remember that you can plan on spending down your capital as well as using income (that's a plus). You have to cover bad periods in the market, with the unfortunate effect that if you spend unforeseen capital to cover such a period, it is gone forever (that's a minus).

A common figure for Safe Withdrawal Rate (DYOR) is 4%. At that rate, 3/4M would do.

There are other factors. Many personal lifestyle factors would change if you were retired, but whether plus or minus depends on you. Would you need to spend more money to keep yourself sane with all that time on your hands? Or would removing all the things about working allow you to spend less? (Off-peak travel, no rush, no commute, no work clothes, can live where you like, etc).

[rootsnall]

I think the Indian factor has killed it this time.

I think it is always the same though. In my first ever job the old boy contractors were moaning that the end was nigh in that recession. I don't think we'll ever return to the boom time rates of the late 90s when some of us were getting paid more than senior bods at FTSE100 Co's. However supply and demand should leave a decently paid niche for onshore development projects. The main problem with rates in my game at the moment is the number of onshore independent contractors over here who have been happy to work on low(ish) rates. The demise of sterling and supply and demand should hopefully balance things out if/when we emerge from this recession. I don't think offshore development will ever be cost effective in most scenarios and again reality and supply and demand will eventually sort that out.

[Tarquin Farquhar]

I think it is always the same though. In my first ever job the old boy contractors were moaning that the end was nigh in that recession. I don't think we'll ever return to the boom time rates of the late 90s when some of us were getting paid more than senior bods at FTSE100 Co's. However supply and demand should leave a decently paid niche for onshore development projects. The main problem with rates in my game at the moment is the number of onshore independent contractors over here who have been happy to work on low(ish) rates. The demise of sterling and supply and demand should hopefully balance things out if/when we emerge from this recession. I don't think offshore development will ever be cost effective in most scenarios and again reality and supply and demand will eventually sort that out.

I hear what you're saying, but part of my point is that reality may not rule the day. Clients can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

I'm not predicting doom lightly, not since I worried in the late 1970s whether I'd be able to make a living out of COBOL for another 5 years. Now I'll be happy with just another 5 years in IT, but I don't think I'll get it.

[rootsnall]

I hear what you're saying, but part of my point is that reality may not rule the day. Clients can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

I'm not predicting doom lightly, not since I worried in the late 1970s whether I'd be able to make a living out of COBOL for another 5 years. Now I'll be happy with just another 5 years in IT, but I don't think I'll get it.

I thought you might be a young whipper snapper so was giving you a friendly pep talk. I really agree with you, we are all doomed

I think this is going to be a whopper of a recession that the general public ( plus IT people in banking and the public sector ) have so far been shielded from but most IT contractors have felt the full force.

Things will come back up but I agree it might be a long way off yet and some of us will no longer be solvent.