Originally posted by TimberWolf
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In fact, according to the article the chances of having an accident depend on the difference in speed compared to the flow of traffic, not on speed itself. The variance in speed is apparently minimised when the speed limit is less than 10mph below the "design speed" of the road, presumably because it reduces the differences in speed between people who stick to the limit and people who decide what speed to drive at based on their own judgement of the road itself.
Taking some numbers from the article, if you are on a road designed for 100mph (which I believe is the case for British motorways, which originally had no speed limits) and every one else is doing 90, then you are at least six times more likely to have an accident if you drive at 60 than if you drive at 90 (based on figure 2 and taking the left hand most point on the dark blue graph, as figure 1 makes it look like a factor of about 100 which seems a bit high to me) According to the text under the table there is already a >50% chance of an accident being fatal when you are travelling at 60mph, so even if an accident at 90mph were guaranteed to kill you that's only a factor of two increase in the probability of death. Combining the two probabilities means you are at least three times more likely to die driving at 60 in those conditions than if you drive at 90.

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