Britain leads the world yet again

[Bagpuss]

Get out of Sterling NOW

The same sterling that is heading back toward $2 to the pound? Nah

[OwlHoot]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8177814.stmThe IMF estimates .. that by 2014, government debt will reach 239% of GDP in Japan, 132% in Italy, 112% in the US, and 99.7% in the UK.

I can never understand how the Japanese are in such a pickle, when they're so clever and seem such prosperous nation.

Maybe there is something in the theory that everyone being pennypinchers and savers, a kind of nation of Cybertories, is damaging for an economy.

I guess it's also that their industries have been undercut and hollowed out by formerly poorer nations like China and Korea. So they're in the same boat as us in relation to manufacturing.

.. Rating agencies have recently warned that a UK debt of 100% of GDP would force them to consider downgrading the credit rating of UK government bonds.

Again ..

[BrilloPad]

The same sterling that is heading back toward $2 to the pound? Nah

I hope you are right. I might buy a holiday home in Florida.

[gordonbrown]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8177814.stm

It estimates that by 2014, government debt will reach 239% of GDP in Japan, 132% in Italy, 112% in the US, and 99.7% in the UK.

The UK's lower level of projected debt among leading nations shows how much better placed we are to ride out the world recession.

[centurian]

Or is it like them owing one of those amounts on their mortgage? (Big deal)

It is like having a mortgage of 100% (ish) of your annual salary in 2014 - and that doesn't sound too bad.

However - and this is the stinger - this person also has a considerable amount of day-to-day commitments with that income, so has zero disposible income.

Or more accurately, they have negative disposible income - they still need to borrow money after 2014 just to pay for living expenses. They won't stop borrowing until about 2018 and even then, there is no plan to pay back the capital amount.

If someone earns 30K pa and has a 30K mortgage, but spends 33K per year and they do this year after year after year, they're on a one-way trip to bankuptcy.


As to how we compare against others, if 6 aircraft are flying around 3,000 ft, they all have sufficient clearance from the ground. But the one that started at a high altitude and is continuing to nose dive with the Captain showing little signs of pulling up is the one that's in real trouble.

That's why rating agencies are getting so spooked. We started from a good position (as long as you ignore things like PFI and public sector pension liabilities), but there are no credible plans to close that gap.

[BrilloPad]

It is like having a mortgage of 100% (ish) of your annual salary in 2014 - and that doesn't sound too bad.

However - and this is the stinger - this person also has a considerable amount of day-to-day commitments with that income, so has zero disposible income.

Or more accurately, they have negative disposible income - they still need to borrow money after 2014 just to pay for living expenses. They won't stop borrowing until about 2018 and even then, there is no plan to pay back the capital amount.

If someone earns 30K pa and has a 30K mortgage, but spends 33K per year and they do this year after year after year, they're on a one-way trip to bankuptcy.


As to how we compare against others, if 6 aircraft are flying around 3,000 ft, they all have sufficient clearance from the ground. But the one that started at a high altitude and is continuing to nose dive with the Captain showing little signs of pulling up is the one that's in real trouble.

That's why rating agencies are getting so spooked. We started from a good position (as long as you ignore things like PFI and public sector pension liabilities), but there are no credible plans to close that gap.

The solution is to cut spending to 27k per year until the mortgage is zero.

[Sysman]

The solution is to cut spending to 27k per year until the mortgage is zero.

But within 3 years, the cost of essentials that you have little to no control over (gas, electricity, council tax, water rates, congestion/parking charge) has risen by 3K.

Then your employer relocates, adding 3K p.a. to your commuting costs.

Back to square one.

[BrilloPad]

But within 3 years, the cost of essentials that you have little to no control over (gas, electricity, council tax, water rates, congestion/parking charge) has risen by 3K.

Then your employer relocates, adding 3K p.a. to your commuting costs.

Back to square one.

Then abandon the car and walk!

[stackpole]

The point is that the UK is losing money every year.

For no good reason we were losing a lot every year during the good times, we're losing a shed-load now, and nothing from the government and its "investment" plans suggests we won't be losing it at an even faster rate in the future.

[BarbarianAtTheDoor]

With growing GDP, you can borrow more as long as the growth of the borrowing is below the growth of the GDP, thus improving your debt/income ratios.

I'm not nearly as concerned about the UK as most of you are, that's because the British have this remarkable ability to realise when they need austerity and somehow get their politicians to act accordingly. Only the Germans can pull the same thing off in Europe. The French or the Italians would set the world ablaze if the government wanted to cut public spending or hike taxes.

If there was a Deutschmark, I'd go with that, though.