21 - I am confused

[DimPrawn]

What if you actually want a goat?

I've got three cars already.

[FSM with Cheddar]

What if you actually want a goat?

I've heard that about people from Swindon.

[The Lone Gunman]

I still dont get it. Maths was never my strong point. I passed the probability part of the maths exam at Uni, but only by applying the theory and not due to understanding.

He is always going to show me a goat so there is only ever a 50 50 chance that I have chosen the car already.
What has happened before makes no difference as far as I can see.
Dont try and explain it, I have a blind spot here. You will do well if you can make me understand it.

[bobhope]

Yes the classic opening example in any course of probability. Completely counter-intuitive yet true. Don't worry several maths profs have got it wrong too.

True, even after working it out in theory, I just had to write a program to do it as well.

[FSM with Cheddar]

True, even after working it out in theory, I just had to write a program to do it as well.

The first thing I did was write a program to try it out.

[oracleslave]

Game 1
Pick a door oracleslave...

door 3

[TimberWolf]

I still dont get it. Maths was never my strong point. I passed the probability part of the maths exam at Uni, but only by applying the theory and not due to understanding.

He is always going to show me a goat so there is only ever a 50 50 chance that I have chosen the car already.
What has happened before makes no difference as far as I can see.
Dont try and explain it, I have a blind spot here. You will do well if you can make me understand it.

How can you have a 50-50 chance if you dont swap doors? There are 2 goats and one car (3 doors), so you will only have 1 a in 3 chance of getting the car however many doors the host opens after you pick because you aren't changing.

[TimberWolf]

Game 1

door 3

Door 2 has a goat behind it. Do you want to change your mind?

[The Lone Gunman]

How can you have a 50-50 chance if you dont swap doors? There are 2 goats and one car (3 doors), so you will only have 1 a in 3 chance of getting the car however many doors the host opens after you pick because you aren't changing.

He has eliminated 1 of the goats and one of the doors by showing me where it is.
There is a goat behind one door and a car behind the other. That is a 50 50.

[ace00]

I still dont get it. Maths was never my strong point. ..........

Forget the maths, it is the revelation of the goat that matters:
"The quizmaster then opens one of the other doors and reveals a goat."