Who said mainframe programmers were safe?

[sunnysan]

True

That doesn't really matter.

They are cheaper.

Thats the crux of the matter but it is not always the case.

IFAICS CEOs get remunerated for cost savings within the context of the financial year, therefore they will personally reap the benefit of the so called cost saving, while the consequences will be felt long after the cost saving bonus is bobbing merrily on the water in the South of France

IMHO, the outsourcing model is unsustainable owing the massive wage inflation in the traditional outsourcing areas. Add to this wage deflation in traditional 1st world economies, and the associated pitfalls of outsourcing.

At this point however, it is still "cheaper" to outsource. We are told we need to adapt to a global economy etc etc, when all outsourcing is really doing is eroding the skills base and transferring knowledge and expertise out of the country.

[dave_richard]

I have just gone through this forum and looking so nice as my point of view, hope you will share your views with me.

[NotAllThere]

Research in the 70s showed that a "good" programmer outperforms an "average" programmer, in terms of Total Cost of Ownership, by about 20. I.e. the good programmer produces programs that cost 20x less then an average. And for comparison of "good" with "bad", you're talking 50x.

So, if you can get a good programmer in India, you'll save a fortune. BUT... if you outsource you have NO control over who's doing the work, and the bad programs generally come and bite you some time after they've been written, tested, brought into service.

In the SAP world, programming has been heavily outsourced to India. One of the issues I've observed is that newbies start as programmers. After two years of being at the bottom of the SAP food chain, they try to get into more business oriented areas, or management. Hence the programming is 99% of the time being done by newbies. I.e. by and large, "bad" programmers. Anyone who's been there more than 2 years is by definition crap, since they've not been able to move on.

And unlike having your own programmers, you've no way of getting them to stay on.

Further, business processes are encode in the computer systems of companies. It's where the intelligence of a company lies. Giving control of that to a third party is akin to giving yourself a lobotomy. Look at the way the likes of Nestlé were tulipting themselves when Satyam looked like it would go down.

Ultimately, companies that haven't offshored will do better than those who have. But it's long term thinking, and, as has been pointed out, CEOs aren't really into that.

[oracleslave]

IFAICS CEOs get remunerated for cost savings within the context of the financial year, therefore they will personally reap the benefit of the so called cost saving, while the consequences will be felt long after the cost saving bonus is bobbing merrily on the water in the South of France

whs ++

Which is why I have always said bonuses etc should be more revenue based and not so cost-driven.

[Gonzo]

Never mind the quality, feel the width.

You could make a tv programme on that theme...

[expat]

this is darwinism in action

we have to adapt to survive

simple as

Milan.

Actually that's not Darwinism. Nothing like it, in fact, except for the recycling of one or two words.

[Gonzo]

IMHO, the outsourcing model is unsustainable owing the massive wage inflation in the traditional outsourcing areas. Add to this wage deflation in traditional 1st world economies, and the associated pitfalls of outsourcing.

Do we think that that would mean that outsourcing is reversed (which I suspect most of us would like to see), or is there another solution (that we will find equally unpalatable)?

[sunnysan]

Biggest Threat

I think outsourcing is one threat but IMHO the biggest threat to "good programmers" is actually service orientated applications where companies can basically buy business process management software online, in some cases rendering the need for software engineers redundant. The function to customize it becomes a business analyst function rather that an engineering one.

At this stage its more of a visible trend than a threat but SAAS applications like Saleforce etc will make huge inroads into businesses that traditionally would have used a solution customised to a the specific business's need.

Some businesses will always require a great deal of customisation which is not my point. My point is that less businesses will need to be involved in the expensive business of developing applications and will be able to buy highly customizable software in which to implement there business processes.

[expat]

NotAllThere is right about the difference between good and bad. There are good subcontinentals, but I wouldn't bet on bean-counters' ability to find them.

I would imagine that in fact the skill level is not taken into account, any more than it is by agencies, for whom (mostly) you either "have" a skill or "don't have" it. Interchangeable bodies with standardised skill components.

As for bonuses, why not hold back some or all of them until it is clear that the work has indeed been successful?

[NotAllThere]

...
As for bonuses, why not hold back some or all of them until it is clear that the work has indeed been successful?

Because the people who could authorise such a procedure are the ones getting the bonuses!