UFOs and Aliens corner

[AlfredJPruffock]

Aye Dave

... the size of the Universe does have a lot to do with the solution to the Paradox - even taking into account a conservative estimation of the universe you gage ...

Fermis paradox reportedly quipped to fellow physicists in 1950, when discussing why we haven't seen any signs of alien civilisations if, as many believe, our galaxy is teeming with life. Now, a maths model may have an answer to Fermi's paradox.

Rasmus Bjork of the Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen, Denmark, has calculated that eight probes - travelling at a tenth of the speed of light and each capable of launching up to eight sub-probes - would take about 100,000 years to explore a region of space containing 40,000 stars. When Bjork scaled up the search to include 260,000 such systems in our galaxy's habitable zone, the probes took almost 10 billion years - three-quarters the age of the universe - to explore just 0.4 per cent of the stars (http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph?papernum=0701238).

So, Bjork's answer to the Fermi paradox: aliens haven't contacted us because they haven't had the time to find us yet.

He adds that the search could be optimised by visiting only those stars that harbour habitable planets, which could be identified by planet-finding missions such as NASA's Terrestrial Planet Finder. Bj�rk is also "cautiously optimistic" about listening out for aliens with radio telescopes.

Time Will Tell ....

[DS23]

So, Bjork's answer to the Fermi paradox: aliens haven't contacted us because they haven't had the time to find us yet.

whs thank goodness. i don't think we aught to want to be found.

[AlfredJPruffock]

whs thank goodness. i don't think we aught to want to be found.

Of course there is Pruffocks Paradox - even in the relatively short time frame - they have attmepted to contact us - but we have not yet dveloped the means to receive and de-cypher their transmissions on their Wavelength - yet.

[DaveB]

Aye Dave

... the size of the Universe does have a lot to do with the solution to the Paradox - even taking into account a conservative estimation of the universe you gage ...

Fermis paradox reportedly quipped to fellow physicists in 1950, when discussing why we haven't seen any signs of alien civilisations if, as many believe, our galaxy is teeming with life. Now, a maths model may have an answer to Fermi's paradox.

Rasmus Bjork of the Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen, Denmark, has calculated that eight probes - travelling at a tenth of the speed of light and each capable of launching up to eight sub-probes - would take about 100,000 years to explore a region of space containing 40,000 stars. When Bjork scaled up the search to include 260,000 such systems in our galaxy's habitable zone, the probes took almost 10 billion years - three-quarters the age of the universe - to explore just 0.4 per cent of the stars (http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph?papernum=0701238).

So, Bjork's answer to the Fermi paradox: aliens haven't contacted us because they haven't had the time to find us yet.

He adds that the search could be optimised by visiting only those stars that harbour habitable planets, which could be identified by planet-finding missions such as NASA's Terrestrial Planet Finder. Bj�rk is also "cautiously optimistic" about listening out for aliens with radio telescopes.

Time Will Tell ....

He also went on to say that increasing the number of initial probes to 200 ( not unreasonable if you are going to do this to begin with ) reduces the time taken to 400m years, or slightly more than a quarter of the age of the universe.

Now assuming that there is only 1 other civilisation out there advanced enough to do this then yes, chances are they will never find us which means for all practical purposes we are indeed alone in the universe.

However if we take the estimated 7*10^22 stars in the visible universe and assume only one in 10m supports a habitable planet capable of sustaining a suitable civilisation we still have 7x10^15 potential sources of exterterestrial contact.

If even only 1 in 10 million of these is ever capable of producing these exploratory probes we have 7x10^8 sources of probes each capable of exploring 0.4% of the universe in 400m years.

To completely explore the universe in this time scale would only require 250 civilisations launching probes. With these above numbers we have 2.8m times as many as, that so it would only take 142 years to explore the entire universe between them.

Based on that we should have encountered *at least* one extraterestrial civilisation while being advanced enough ourselves to have recognised or recorded it in some way, or to have found evidence for the visit.

To date we have found no such evidence.

If they were out there, we would have met them by now.

[AlfredJPruffock]

Based on that we should have encountered *at least* one extraterestrial civilisation while being advanced enough ourselves to have recognised or recorded it in some way, or to have found evidence for the visit.

Well given that we have been only searching the Universe for a blink of an eye in the Cosmic Scale of Time - and then again its a massive assumption that we have developed the means of recoginizing and identifying such signals - in whatever form they may be - altough when Gamma Rays where first discovered some thought they could be signals from an other LifeForm - which makes you wonder .

For the time being I shall agree to differ with Fermis Paradox for reasons Ive explained I remain unconvicned.

[AlfredJPruffock]

No doubt... though if other "civilisations" are much like that on Terra, then they light up briefly in the radio spectrum as radio & tv are invented, then go dark again when it all gets transmitted by optical fibre.

At which point the 'other civllisations' might assume that Earth showed 'too much talent for War' and had , like so many other delveoping civilisations - nuked themselves into oblivion in about 50 years after dicovering how to split the atom .

So then the 'Other Civilsation ' may conclude - no enviornmental issues then with detonating Betelgeuse which has become a growing concern to some of our galactic carrier ships.