Property experts see green shoots

[Doggy Styles]

This is mildly amusing:

So when will house prices hit the bottom?

Money invited a panel of property experts to give their opinions on the state of the market. Most see at least some green shoots.

Lucian Cook of Savills, the estate agent, was the most bullish of our panel — claiming we have seen the “beginning of the end of house price falls” — but even he said it would take until at least 2013 for prices to return to their peak.

The word c*** was invented for people like Mr Cook.

Up to 2005 I kept a spreadsheet on average house prices and earnings, and the ratio between them.

In 1997 the average house price/earnings ratio was 3.4 (average earnings £19375 average house price £66094)

In 2005 it was 6.3 (£26884 and £170238)

In 2007 it peaked even higher. It has a long way to fall.

[OwlHoot]

If there are any green shoots they must be growing towards Australia.

I'd say the property market is more like parsley seeds at the moment ..

The English to this day say that parsley seed goes seven times to the Devil and back before it germinates (it DOES seem to take forever!)

[MPwannadecentincome]

why did you stop doing the spreadsheet after 2005?

and what really is the relevance of the average house and the average earnings - where does this average person live, what job do they do and how much are they earning on the side and do they actually buy or rent? And if they buy are they married to another average earner?

[EternalOptimist]

This is mildly amusing:

So when will house prices hit the bottom?
The word c*** was invented for people like Mr Cook.

Up to 2005 I kept a spreadsheet on average house prices and earnings, and the ratio between them.

In 1997 the average house price/earnings ratio was 3.4 (average earnings £19375 average house price £66094)

In 2005 it was 6.3 (£26884 and £170238)

In 2007 it peaked even higher. It has a long way to fall.

In you initial description, you say you will compare house prices with earnings, but in the detail, you reverse this and compare earnings with house prices.
This is confusing and is exactly the type of sloppy analysis that brings IT into disrepute.

must try harder

[Doggy Styles]

Well spotted EO. That's why I don't run a bank.

[Doggy Styles]

why did you stop doing the spreadsheet after 2005?

and what really is the relevance of the average house and the average earnings - where does this average person live, what job do they do and how much are they earning on the side and do they actually buy or rent? And if they buy are they married to another average earner?

Look it up. The house price averages were from the Halifax. I can't remember where the average earnings figure comes from, but it's published every year. The whole point is that the ratio indicates average affordability.

[BrilloPad]

So the motto is never trust predictions from those with a vested interest in the outcome?

[MPwannadecentincome]

Look it up. The house price averages were from the Halifax. I can't remember where the average earnings figure comes from, but it's published every year. The whole point is that the ratio indicates average affordability.

and of little relevance to most of the population.

[TykeMerc]

So the motto is never trust predictions from those with a vested interest in the outcome?

Indeed.

[Doggy Styles]

and of little revelance to most of the population.

What on earth are you talking about?