The next crisis

[Cyberman]

The next crisis is 'prudent' Gordon Brown going to the IMF fo a mega-billion loan.

[Fishface]

British Airways offer a AMEX card at 46.5%

that is the highest I have ever heard of

[expat]

The next crisis is 'prudent' Gordon Brown going to the IMF fo a mega-billion loan.

Why would he do that? I must be missing something......

[Spacecadet]

British Airways offer a AMEX card at 46.5%

that is the highest I have ever heard of

you know how those BA adverts work don't you...

the 46.5%APR card is actually 17.6%
However, due to FSA rules since there is a £150 annual fee on the card this has to be included as "interest"

[Cyberman]

Why would he do that? I must be missing something......

You most certainly are !! There are definitely parallels. Healey had a budget deficit with a 7% shortfall after huge overspending and had to go to the IMF for an emergency loan in 1976. Brown/Darling will have a budget deficit of 100Billion and rising over the next year, again due to huge overspending.

[RandyW]

A mate who runs a firm that supplies builders was telling me one of the services offered by his 'security' man he employs occasionally was to have the debtor 'bummed' if they don't pay up.

Can you PM HAB the details? Apparently he's discovered an urgent need for some bricks on credit.

[expat]

You most certainly are !! There are definitely parallels. Healey had a budget deficit with a 7% shortfall after huge overspending and had to go to the IMF for an emergency loan in 1976. Brown/Darling will have a budget deficit of 100Billion and rising over the next year, again due to huge overspending.

The IMF loan in 1976 was needed not because of a budget deficit, but rather an ill-advised attempt to maintain the exchange rate of Sterling unreasonably high: a mistake that I don't think Labour will repeat (though the Tories did in 1992).

BTW

Public sector net debt, expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) ... peaked at 44.8 per cent of GDP in 1997

(that's the end of the last Tory government, in case you didn't notice).

[Cyberman]

The case rests:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/philip_...ibudget_ordeal


'In the 1970s, Healey had a whole succession of mini-Budgets as Labour's profligate spending plans came up against the economic realities of declining revenues.

The mini-Budget of December 1976 led to £2.5bn cuts in spending, increases in duties on alcohol and tobacco and the sale of part of the government's stake in BP.
'


It seems we are revisiting 1976 and the IMF. At least it may well be the last we see of New Lie and its enduring PROFLIGATE spending for at least another 18 years.

[expat]

The case rests:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/philip_...ibudget_ordeal


'In the 1970s, Healey had a whole succession of mini-Budgets as Labour's profligate spending plans came up against the economic realities of declining revenues.

The mini-Budget of December 1976 led to £2.5bn cuts in spending, increases in duties on alcohol and tobacco and the sale of part of the government's stake in BP.
'


It seems we are revisiting 1976 and the IMF. At least it may well be the last we see of New Lie and its enduring PROFLIGATE spending for at least another 18 years.

So what? Even if I allow everything that Philip Johnson writes in the Telegraph (and that would be a first), it doesn't alter the truth of what I said: yes there were loads of deficits and minibudgets at that time, but the 1976 IMF loan was not due to budget deficit but to a futile attempt to maintain an inflated exchange rate. Labour is unlikely to try this again, because they got badly burned last time and anyway it is not something that they now have any reason to desire.

By contrast the Tories did try it again (1992) when they should have known better; and they (or their voters) do have an attachment to the idea of a strong pound.

Contrary to all expectations, Labour governments do learn from experience about the economy, and change their ways in response, probably because they have a need for the economy. Conservative governments, by contrast, do not learn from their mistakes in the economy, because the economy and their preconceived notions about it is exactly what they are there for. Thus the Tories can "succeed" simply by telling themselves that they handle the economy better (and some mugs believe it): whereas Labour knows when it isn't working, because they really have plans to implement.