Originally posted by AtW
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Check out this report, where the numbers are stated in a clearer manner:
Let’s repeat his calculation for the world as a whole. In 2006, the coal consumption rate was 6.3 Gt per year. Comparing this with reserves of 1600 Gt of coal, people often say “there’s 250 years of coal left”. But if we assume business as usual implies a growing consumption, we get a different answer. If the growth rate of coal consumption were to continue at 2% per year (which gives a reasonable fit to the data from 1930 to 2000), then all the coal would be gone in 2096. If the growth rate is 3.4% per year (the growth rate over the last decade), the end of business-as-usual is guaranteed to be before 2072. Not 250 years, but 60!
http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/s...ok/tex/cft.pdf (pg 164).
http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/s...ok/tex/cft.pdf (pg 164).
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