Originally posted by sasguru
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Original discussion was about Russia supposedly still getting as much money for oil/gas if they don't sell it to the west - the main country is supposedly China but it is proven easily with import/export that China will not need as much oil and the price at which they buy will certainly be much lower, definatly not market price given existing known facts about them.
Originally posted by sasguru
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http://import-export.suite101.com/ar...on_oil_imports
India imports 2 mln barrels per day, so even if China + India completely replace their imports with Russians, then Russia would still have almost 2 mln spare barrels of oil. Japan and other countries will join the embargo - Japan actualy has got territorial claim to a few of island occupied by Russia since the last war.
I atually think India will join the embargo - they are not China.
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But the point is that who on earth apart from you would expect that Russia will get market price by becoming sole supplier of China/India? No chance - even if they get the deal it would be at much much lower price, at least 50% less - minimum. And Russian budget will have deficit if price of oil drops below $70-80, Putin regimes will fall with the price of oil and they know it.
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