What makes this housing down turn different

[BrilloPad]

This is a small island with tight planning controls and expanding population - very different to American housing market.

[AtW]

This is a small island with tight planning controls and expanding population - very different to American housing market.

And what about Japan?

[Turion]

This is a small island with tight planning controls and expanding population - very different to American housing market.

What about Hong kong? -60%, Singapore -40% during 1996-1998, both have rapidly expanding populations and little space.

[BrilloPad]

And what about Japan?

ah my little grey furry creature loving friend. A very good question. You can be a very clever chap when you are not trying to increase your post count...

I believe that Asia (lead by Japan) is about 60 years behind the west in the economic cycle. So in the 1990s they had the depression that the West had in the 1930s. The economic downturn led to the housing downturn. Which is sort of the opposite of what we are seeing now(well the housing market dropping in the states caused the credit crunch which surely must lead to an economic downturn here).

Don't get me wrong - house prices WILL fall in the UK. But not as far as the states. While people have jobs they will do almost anything to keep their house.

Like you I would welcome a big cut in house prices so youngsters can get on the ladder. And a depression has its good points - difference between recession and depression is that in depression bankers also lose their jobs.

What might then get interesting is where people saving for retirement (there are still some) will put their money. Not property - so I reckon it will be bonds and/or equity. Or is it the time for cash/gold?

Another unknown is what will happen to India/China. Will they now take over? Is this the end of the West's dominance? I reckon not yet - but if it comes true then we could see house prices drop by 50%+.

[BrilloPad]

Typical mistake of people who can't understand strategic macroeconomic issues.

No,you personally might be allright, but lots of non-IT-contractors who overextended themselves and bought houses with 100-125% morgage are going to get screwed. And this will affect you because such a shock to UK economy will certainly cause downturn in all industries.

I don't have a morgage, but I know that downturn won't be good for any business, so I am not happy when write all this - I'd prefer that this bubble was not inflated by Govt in the first place but the only thing that can happen now is that it pops.

Has there ever been an economic bubble which has deflated rather than popped?

[BrilloPad]

What about Hong kong? -60%, Singapore -40% during 1996-1998, both have rapidly expanding populations and little space.

See my answwer above - plus in 1997 was the China handover(people getting out) and the 1998 Asia crisis. Though the 1998 events could repeat themselves...

[AtW]

See my answwer above - plus in 1997 was the China handover(people getting out) and the 1998 Asia crisis. Though the 1998 events could repeat themselves...

Asia 1997
Russian 1998

I know because Russian default of 1998 made me get back to this country and I stayed here even since...

[AtW]

ah my little grey furry creature loving friend. A very good question. You can be a very clever chap when you are not trying to increase your post count...

If I did not use other accounts my post count would have been 100,000

The reason I mentioned Japan is because they are very close to the UK in geographical terms - lots of people on a small island. Yet they manage to get high speed railways going on time and safe even during earthquakes - and this country invented trains

[Turion]

See my answwer above - plus in 1997 was the China handover(people getting out) and the 1998 Asia crisis. Though the 1998 events could repeat themselves...

I can answer the Singapore issue as I was there during the late '90s. They had a housing bubble like ours, over a period of 10 years prices tripled. In 1996 the Govt took action to remove the speculative froth with taxes on speculators. This stopped the upward march in prices.

What actually burst the bubble was the Asian currency crisis of 1997. Prices then plunged, as demand collapsed. In my opinion, the govt action, just reduced the price peak. It just meant they fell only 40% instead of say 60-70% if the speculation had continued another year.

[BrilloPad]

Asia 1997
Russian 1998

I know because Russian default of 1998 made me get back to this country and I stayed here even since...

Indeed you are right - I remember it cos of the 10th anniversary of black monday.