Boomed! - House prices have not fallen in January

**rootsnall** · 5 February 2008, 08:34

Tulip ! Wish I hadn't sold that house last week, it's now in the bank on a miserly 6.2% rate of interest. Perhaps I should leverage up and buy a dozen or so BTLs

**VectraMan** · 5 February 2008, 08:54

Originally posted by DimPrawn View Post

However, the country's biggest mortgage lender said that house prices were rising at an annual rate of 4.5%.

Aren't statistics great? That's based on the previous 12 months presumably. If we base it on January, then that's 0% x 12, which is, errrr, now let me think, 0%.

**51st State** · 5 February 2008, 09:29

Originally posted by VectraMan View Post

Aren't statistics great? That's based on the previous 12 months presumably. If we base it on January, then that's 0% x 12, which is, errrr, now let me think, 0%.

Even worse, if you take the last three quarters ...

"Despite the annual growth and prices remaining unchanged in January, the Halifax said there was evidence of a longer term slowdown.
It said that prices fell by 1% in the three months to the end of January compared to the previous quarter. This was the third successive fall in prices on a three-month basis."

**PAH** · 5 February 2008, 10:19

Originally posted by VectraMan View Post

Aren't statistics great? That's based on the previous 12 months presumably.

No, it's even better than that.

The values the mortgage company use are based on the land registry database, which as shown last night on Panorama, they can be somewhat over inflated quite easily.

So whenever a mortgage company produces some stats on house prices, print it out and use it as loo paper, that's how useful it is. It's a bit tricky feeding Andrex double velvet into a printer though if you're suffering from piles. May need to get IT support in to help out.

**oracleslave** · 5 February 2008, 10:23

Originally posted by PAH View Post

No, it's even better than that.

So whenever a mortgage company produces some stats on house prices, print it out and use it as loo paper, that's how useful it is. It's a bit tricky feeding Andrex double velvet into a printer though if you're suffering from piles. May need to get IT support in to help out.

**ratewhore** · 5 February 2008, 11:19

Originally posted by 51st State View Post

It said that prices fell by 1% in the three months to the end of January compared to the previous quarter. This was the third successive fall in prices on a three-month basis."

Shirley thats house price inflation, not house prices?

**VectraMan** · 5 February 2008, 11:37

Originally posted by ratewhore View Post

Shirley thats house price inflation, not house prices?

Yes, but that's worked out over the last 12 months. So if the inflation for the last 12 months is 1% less now than it was a month ago, then that means prices are falling now. It's just that they're still more than they were 12 months ago, so annual price inflation is still positive. I think they're relying on people not understanding that to make it sound less bad than it is (assuming I understand it right).

Of course when you take into account general inflation, 4% is effectively zero (or not much anyway), and 0% is deflation.

**Bagpuss** · 5 February 2008, 11:41

After the BTL fraud revealed on panorama last night I'd be very wary of land registry prices, and house price inflation figures.

Boomed! - House prices have not fallen in January