Anyone interested in US politics?

[snaw]

Do you think, if their constitution allowed it, Americans would have voted Bush in again? And if so that we should perhaps consider going extinct and letting another species have a go?

Not a chance - he's got one of the lowest approval ratings ever recorded for a president (Low 30's at one point) - the mid terms showed that when the democrats regained both houses.

[Dow Jones]

US Public

Bush had a relatively easy pre-election contest with both Al Gore and John Kerry (despite both times coming close to lose). Al Gore's biggest mistake was to want change from Clinton (they al knew that he was his right hand man - a mistake that Calamity Brown has made here) and Kerry wanted a complete break with the past. In the US you can't go around slating the incumbent and wanting a revolution - Americans won't buy into that. Obama is too far to the left on this. Hilary Clinton will built on Bill's reputation and not forgetting that the Clinton and Bush Snr are best mates will refrain from that. She knows what she needs to do to win - promising a lot of things but making very few changes while maintaing an upbeat mood while the US is suffering from a 'mild depression' atm.

[snaw]

It's going to be Clinton vs Guliani, a repeat of the fight that never took place for her NY Senate seat. Clinton is a polished performer, Guliani is a likeable and seasoned politician, so it should be quite interesting to see who comes up on top in the end.
Guliani strategy was not to bother with Iowa and some other joke states that carry only a handful of delegates and concentrate on the big ones (NY, California, Florida and Mid-West ones) to carry him through the convention.
If he makes it to the White House (despite Bush's unpopularity) it will be a small miracle.
Rest of the Republicans are too old or non-appealing to the core voters, Obama will falter in the South where Edwards will get most votes and Clinton will cruise to win the nomination (and possibly the White House). Despite what she says atm, she will carry out most of the Bush agenda (inc. war in Iraq/Afghan/etc).
-End of bulletin-

Quite possible, then again quite possibly completely wrong. I think Obama will get the nomination, just from talking to friends in the US who are democrats - then again they're all pretty much in the prime demographic of Obama supporters so maybe I'm getting a false impression.

I'm not so sure about Giuliani, it's a risky strategy and he's dropped of the radar and these things are all about momentum. I've no idea who'll get the republican nomination, but no matter who does I don't think it's winnable for them. Too much baggage from the Bush years I believe.

[Dow Jones]

Hearts vs minds

If Clinton gets it, then she's got a far better chance to win.
If, on the other hand, Democrats vote with their hearts as they have done before (Dukakis), then it's going to be wide open with someone like Guliani claiming to be the much more experienced one. Also, I don't want to see the race card played on Obama, as he seems a genuinely nice guy, in which case he will lose most of the Southern states.

[snaw]

If Clinton gets it, then she's got a far better chance to win.
If, on the other hand, Democrats vote with their hearts as they have done before (Dukakis), then it's going to be wide open with someone like Guliani claiming to be the much more experienced one. Also, I don't want to see the race card played on Obama, as he seems a genuinely nice guy, in which case he will lose most of the Southern states.

Gotta disagree - I think Obama would have a better chance to win - he's nothing like as divisive as Clinton, both within her party and more importantly on mobilising republican base - they loathe her.

He prob won't get the south but Clinton wouldn't either and the democrats don't need it to win the presidency.

[snaw]

So predictions tonight?

I reckon the Obama bandwagon will steamroll over Hillary and his momentum will increase. I think Hillary has a tough job on her hands, her only choice is to get negative (Or wait for Obama to have a Howard Dein moment) but that could hurt her just as much - his message is very positive and it could rebound on her badly.

Republicans I'm thinking Mcain - that'd be my dream matchup - MCain against Obama - don't think I'd be too worried about who won.

[Rantor]

So predictions tonight?

I reckon the Obama bandwagon will steamroll over Hillary and his momentum will increase. I think Hillary has a tough job on her hands, her only choice is to get negative (Or wait for Obama to have a Howard Dein moment) but that could hurt her just as much - his message is very positive and it could rebound on her badly.

Republicans I'm thinking Mcain - that'd be my dream matchup - MCain against Obama - don't think I'd be too worried about who won.

As you said earlier, Clinton is divisive but Obama hasn't been put under the microscope to the same extent as she has. If he buckles or has any (plausible) skeletons in the cupboard then the republicans may win by default.

A lot of this thread is about the democrats but I can't see too much difference between the current republican front-runners and bush in terms of stated policy.

BTW - I agree with your predictions.

[snaw]

I sort of feel sorry for republicans, in an I really don't mean it kind of way. If you're say an American version of a Tory in the UK - right wing, but not an evangelical religious nut, it must be pretty tough knowing your party is in thrall to what is still a minority group in the US, just one that's very well organised politically and wields power way beyond it's numbers. I mean FFS, the guy who one Iowa - Huckaby, doesn't believe in the theory of evolution.

And yeah, agree - I can't see too much difference between the republican candidates - McCain does want to continue the war but I'd trust him to do the right thing at least in the long run and get the focus back where it should be. At one point they were all trying to outgun one another on how they'd ramp UP Guantanamo, trying to out right wing macho each other. Kinda scary.

[oracleslave]

So predictions tonight?

I reckon the Obama bandwagon will steamroll over Hillary and his momentum will increase. I think Hillary has a tough job on her hands, her only choice is to get negative (Or wait for Obama to have a Howard Dein moment) but that could hurt her just as much

I'd agree with your predictions too. Momentum/sentiment is a massive thing and seems to be in Obama's favour.

[Clippy]

It may just be me being too lazy to read properly how the election process works, but isn't it all a bit OTT and complicated? Can't they all just vote, add up the votes and the highest number wins?

I believe they tried that system in 2000.
It was going well until they tried to count the votes in Florida...