Have I mentioned house prices are going up?

[sasguru]

I saw some program while in Ireland and they were saying the bottom of the cycle was an average 34% drop. Example's Norway, Spain, USA and previous UK drop. So 30% looks like a good point to start looking for something.

Punters in Ireland are already offering 25% below asking price for property. Currently, there is nothing selling over there but prices have not really fallen yet. Everyone is holding on, word on the street is banks are taking over property from defaulters and renting it back to them. Hoping to avoid a crash in property prices and negative equity.

This may work in the short term but Ireland has a large number of people involved in the construction industry. With zero sales and very low new property starts the construction industry have started to let people go. This will increase the number of defaulters in the BTL market when the unemployed migriant workers exit the country.

The UK market is not so exposed, the increase in interest rates, a reduction in money supply, an increase in unemployment or something else could trigger the fall but I am not seeing anything to trigger the fall yet.

One of today's papers (FT I think) reckons that the amount of mortgages offered by the banks will be halved as they tighten up lending criteria. If true, that's your demand component removed.

[VectraMan]

One of today's papers (FT I think) reckons that the amount of mortgages offered by the banks will be halved as they tighten up lending criteria. If true, that's your demand component removed.

Indeed. The "prices rise forever" argument seems to rely mostly on the increasing demand, yet that assumes an infinite amount of credit for those that want it. Never was the case, and certainly isn't now.

There was another BBC News story about small business suffering due to less availability and higher rates of lending, thanks to all this. That can't be good.

Unfortunately if there is a crash, it'll probably go hand in hand with a recession and then we might all be out of work. We just need an IT boom to happen at the same time as a house price crash.

[beaker]

I mentioned to a friend I was thinking of buying a flat in west London

"Oh property is such a good investment" he said

Then I said I wasn't sure because I may only be there for 1-2 years then move overseas and that if the price went down, I would be screwed really

He said "oh I didn't know property could go down in value"

I mean, what can you say to that?

[wendigo100]

He said "oh I didn't know property could go down in value"

I mean, what can you say to that?

How about: "You stupid c***."

[GreenerGrass]

Unfortunately if there is a crash, it'll probably go hand in hand with a recession and then we might all be out of work. We just need an IT boom to happen at the same time as a hose price crash.

Yes, be careful what you wish for.

And I seriously believe a water shortage next summer could trigger a hose price crash, people will be banned from washing cars, watering their gardens, etc.

[Sysman]

He said "oh I didn't know property could go down in value"

I mean, what can you say to that?

Proof that Hotel bellboy /shoe shiner thing has kicked in.

It reminds me of the early 1980s, when I couldn't sell my house, so ended up paying for it when I wasn't living there. Some git told me "There's nothing safer than bricks and mortar".

It's time to get shut if you can, or prepare to hang on for a good few years.

[DimPrawn]

Property is rising in London 19% a year.

Buy now whilst you still can people. For gods sake don't miss the opportunity to buy these at current give away prices.

You have been warned.

[shaunbhoy]

Indeed. The "prices rise forever" argument seems to rely mostly on the increasing demand

Yes,
but nobody puts that argument forward except for imbeciles like beaker's mate.

[Old Greg]

Property is rising in London 19% a year.

Buy now whilst you still can people. For gods sake don't miss the opportunity to buy these at current give away prices.

You have been warned.

I've sold up and moved into tulips - it's the next best thing.