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US Presidential Election 2024

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    US Presidential Election 2024

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-67878675

    Donald Trump has asked the US Supreme Court to reverse a Colorado ruling that barred him from running for president in that state.
    Polling show Trump v Biden has Trump winning.

    Currently barred from standing in 2 states, Colorado and Maine. This is 14 college votes, traditionally democrat votes (Maine more so than Colorado) so unlikely to sway the election.

    SCOTUS is stacked 6-3 republican.

    It comes down to the 14th Amendment, namely those who have engaged in insurrection are barred from holding public office. Trump has not been convicted. It's looking unlikely he will be convicted prior to the election cycle kicking off.

    IMO SCOTUS will uphold Trump's appeal and confirm that State's can not disqualify him, only congress is permitted to disqualify a candidate under A.14. Republicans hold the HoR.

    SCOTUS will interpret section 3's 'engaged in insurrection' as 'convicted of insurrection'.

    Either way, with core support at 20-30%, 2024 US politics is going to be spicy.

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