New variant might not be any more transmissable

[jamesbrown]

This new variant happens to by chance easier to detect in testing and is identifiable using existing PCR testing whereas other variants aren't.

That's interesting, I wasn't aware of that.

I guess a test selection bias could partly explain the infection rate apportioned by (biased) testing.

Statistics are hard enough. Moving from correlation to causation is even harder.

[AtW]

"UK reports more than 53,000 daily Covid cases"

Coronavirus updates: UK announces daily record number of Covid cases - BBC News

[mattster]

Interesting idea - obviously no one knows anything for sure just yet. Having said that, in every one of those graphs you have posted, the new variant is growing at a significantly faster rate wrt the old variant, even if in some cases the new variant is broadly flat, the old variant is dropping sharply. Also the simple fact that case numbers are rising at an unprecedented rate, despite near lockdown conditions over most of the population, schools shut for nearly 2 weeks so far etc. Something is going on.

[GhostofTarbera]

Wonder what graph represents the most people crammed into the London Underground


Sent from my iPhone using Contractor UK Forum

[minestrone]

I'm told it gets in care homes and everyone gets it, staff, patients, relatives. Everyone.

[Old Greg]

I like your thorough, scientific, and logical breakdown and rebuttal to the technical analysis given by the professor with a doctorate in statistics from Stanford.

Who chose to publish in the Spectator? What’s its impact factor?

[AtW]

“ People with Covid variant are 50% more likely to infect others

No evidence that strain causes higher risk of death or severe illness

Contacts of people with the new coronavirus variant are 54 per cent more likely to develop the disease, according to new analysis from Public Health England.

They found, however, that it did not appear likely to cause more severe disease or higher death rates.

Researchers found the “secondary attack rate”, or proportion of contacts of confirmed cases that develop the disease themselves, was 15.1 per cent for people with a confirmed case of the new variant and 9.8 per cent for people confirmed to have another variant.“

People with Covid variant are 50% more likely to infect others | News | The Times

Don’t they read Spectator?

[AtW]

I guess Stanford professor was wrong

[Old Greg]

I guess Stanford professor was wrong

What does Simon Dolan say?

[jamesbrown]

What does Simon Dolan say?

I resent any accusation that Simon Dolan received less than an Ivy League education.