Impending house price crash

[SueEllen]

Nice find, i seemed to remember this thread was out there and had intended to search for it.

The most dangerous part of this story is that the people in the original article who get these predictions wrong every time are the ones that want to write housing policy. A labour government and all their mad ideas get approved.

Not all Labour's ideas are mad e.g. energy price caps, nationalisation of the railways. They just didn't seem to fit the situation as we then observed it.

[TwoWolves]

One thing you can always be sure of is that the government will be there to goose the market to prevent any correction.

Note how the rent arrears moratorium expires at pretty much the same time as the stamp duty holiday. Hong Kongers are being allowed in with greater numbers and likely quite cash-rich. Banks will be pressed to suspend repossession too no doubt.

Makes it very hard to predict anything.

[d000hg]

House price crash blah blah. People have been saying we're about to crash ever since the crash in... 2005 was it? That that was "just the beginning". THe same people who were bleating about QE inevitably leading to runaway inflation. 15 years later neither has happened. I suppose if you keep on saying it long enough you will eventually be right and can crow "I've been saying this for years" but it's not the most incisive commentary.

[GigiBronz]

House price crash blah blah. People have been saying we're about to crash ever since the crash in... 2005 was it? That that was "just the beginning". THe same people who were bleating about QE inevitably leading to runaway inflation. 15 years later neither has happened. I suppose if you keep on saying it long enough you will eventually be right and can crow "I've been saying this for years" but it's not the most incisive commentary.

We have runaway inflation, people are sticking their head in the sand about it.

Housing has been propped-up and will be propped up for the indefinite future. You need to keep the old and senile people and you can achieve that by getting the young to pay them tribute.

[d000hg]

We have runaway inflation, people are sticking their head in the sand about it.

Then there's the Trump approach, which is just to say the facts support your claims, and any disputing 'evidence' is just a conspiracy.

I don't know what you'd claim the actual inflation has been but if we suggested everything has doubled in price since 2005 that's an average inflation rate of 5%. Which is not what people were suggesting during QE...

[GigiBronz]

Then there's the Trump approach, which is just to say the facts support your claims, and any disputing 'evidence' is just a conspiracy.

I don't know what you'd claim the actual inflation has been but if we suggested everything has doubled in price since 2005 that's an average inflation rate of 5%. Which is not what people were suggesting during QE...

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/LB1:COM

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BCOM:IND
https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/product/indices/bloomberg-commodity-index-family/

commodities index has about 50% YTD, it is what underlies all economic activities of production. 50% is quite significant. check lumber futures also. that is a fun one.
what ends up on the shelf is either subsidised by the state through backdoors, tax reliefs etc.
or we have package shrinkage

and most of the relevant products for inflation calculation have been taken out of the calculation basket.

[AtW]

House price crash blah blah. People have been saying we're about to crash ever since the crash in... 2005 was it? That that was "just the beginning". THe same people who were bleating about QE inevitably leading to runaway inflation. 15 years later neither has happened. I suppose if you keep on saying it long enough you will eventually be right and can crow "I've been saying this for years" but it's not the most incisive commentary.

[_V_]

Indeed, no inflation. Council tax hasn't gone up, rent hasn't gone up, rail fares never went up, utility bills haven't gotten more expensive.

I mean even new cars are cheap as chips, Golf GTI without options is only £33,460 I'm sure 15 years ago a Golf GTI was £20,000 but I must have imagined that.

[GigiBronz]

Indeed, no inflation. Council tax hasn't gone up, rent hasn't gone up, rail fares never went up, utility bills haven't gotten more expensive.

I mean even new cars are cheap as chips, Golf GTI without options is only £33,460 I'm sure 15 years ago a Golf GTI was £20,000 but I must have imagined that.

which they used to over-engineer but with the progress of technology they are doing them just right to get you through warranty.

and of course you cannot afford them because wages have been stagnant for the same period with increased inflation and now you can only finance with high interest rate a sharp depreciating asset.

where are all the boomers to tell us to work harder?

[AtW]

It's the new paradigm - high inflation keeps mortgage interest rates low.