Boris Johnson: Let's build more railways

[TestMangler]

Odd that the sheep farmers around here are not concerned about Brexit or support it [on the whole]. Probably something to do with the pound crashing against the euro and thus wiping out the effect of the tariffs?

As luck would have it ASF has decimated the Chinese swine so as prices spiral upwards the tariffs will seem minor by comparison.

So, if you add a percentage tariff to a commodity, and the price of that commodity increases, the cost of the tariff becomes less significant. OK.....

[meridian]

Boris Johnson: Let's build more railways

Just did a quick google and according to the welsh 94% goes to the EU. Worth £220M per year. So I'll wind my neck in a bit but I'm guessing they will still buy it even with a tariff.

Odd that the sheep farmers around here are not concerned about Brexit or support it [on the whole]. Probably something to do with the pound crashing against the euro and thus wiping out the effect of the tariffs?
.

So, if you add a percentage tariff to a commodity, and the price of that commodity increases, the cost of the tariff becomes less significant. OK.....

30% drop in Sterling vs a 40% tariff so let’s call it roughly even for the end consumer in the EU, and an increase in farmer’s gate revenue.

Costs, however, also increase. Most of the UK’s fertiliser is imported from the EU; fuel is priced in dollars; etc, so add that 30% back on.

Then consider that exports to the EU require certification - we’re not in the Single Market any more. Extra costs that they don’t currently have.

Then remove the CAP payments after 2020.

I’m sure Boris is right, though, they’ll be fine.

[NigelJK]

Where does the 40% tariff come from? If from the EU after we go then, as the Trump says "it works both ways". I suspect the Army are looking forward to a British roast beef Sunday lunch sometime soon.

[meridian]

Boris Johnson: Let's build more railways

Where does the 40% tariff come from? If from the EU after we go then, as the Trump says "it works both ways". I suspect the Army are looking forward to a British roast beef Sunday lunch sometime soon.

It’s a bit higher than that under EU MFN tariffs if there is No Deal:

Beef and lamb quotas and tariffs for exporting to the EU under WTO rules - AHDB Beef & Lamb

It works both ways if that’s what each side wants, each is free to set their own tariffs. Bear in mind that without any deals, the U.K. would need to apply that tariff to the same classification imported from any country, not just the EU.

[TwoWolves]

30% drop in Sterling vs a 40% tariff so let’s call it roughly even for the end consumer in the EU, and an increase in farmer’s gate revenue.

Costs, however, also increase. Most of the UK’s fertiliser is imported from the EU; fuel is priced in dollars; etc, so add that 30% back on.

Then consider that exports to the EU require certification - we’re not in the Single Market any more. Extra costs that they don’t currently have.

Then remove the CAP payments after 2020.

I’m sure Boris is right, though, they’ll be fine.

Phew! Someone with a brain.

This is why we need the deal with the [oil rich exporter] US, to mitigate some of the strong dollar issues. Note that it is currently strong for all currencies. Plenty of other sources for fertiliser and once the EU advantages are removed costs likely to be similar.

The post no-deal horse trading will quite likely target certification issues but it remains to be seen.

Not a cost free transition but the world is clearly not going to end.

Frankly, Cotswold lamb is better anyway.

[darmstadt]

Where does the 40% tariff come from? If from the EU after we go then, as the Trump says "it works both ways". I suspect the Army are looking forward to a British roast beef Sunday lunch sometime soon.

You need to speak to the new Chris Grayling, Alun Cairns, the new Welsh secretary:

In the event of a no-deal Brexit, there could be a 40% tariff on lamb and sheep meat exports if the UK ended up trading with the EU on WTO terms.

"I would point to the market in Japan that has just been opened to Welsh and British sheep for example, now that is a new market for us, so exports are already taking place there, but that is a significant market for which we haven't even scratched the surface yet."

Except, of course, the Japanese market has been opened up due to a trade deal with the EU. Which the UK is due to leave. And Japan is not one of the deals which the government has negotiated to roll over post-Brexit. And, as many pointed out, lamb is hardly a staple part of the Japanese diet anyway. But never mind. Cairns just buckled down. "There will be these markets and these opportunities there," he repeated.

[OwlHoot]

Hang on - Shouldn't all this stuff about tariffs and the EU be tucked away in the Brexit sub-forum, where the obsessive Remainers can chew over it incessantly?

[darmstadt]

Hang on - Shouldn't all this stuff about tariffs and the EU be tucked away in the Brexit sub-forum, where the obsessive Remainers can chew over it incessantly?

Well although the EU is just part of it, after the tulipstorm is over then it'll be tariffs and the rest of the world...

[Mordac]

Just did a quick google and according to the welsh 94% goes to the EU. Worth £220M per year. So I'll wind my neck in a bit but I'm guessing they will still buy it even with a tariff.

Even if that's right, it makes no sense. Why export to the EU and import from NZ? Welsh is better quality (imo) and I'd rather buy that, but if there's comparatively little available to the UK market, it would explain why the price shoots up.

(Surprised this hasn't been booted off to the forum which dare not speak its name...)

[meridian]

Even if that's right, it makes no sense. Why export to the EU and import from NZ? Welsh is better quality (imo) and I'd rather buy that, but if there's comparatively little available to the UK market, it would explain why the price shoots up.

Have you heard of seasons?