Tory DOOM™: Property

[northernladyuk]

It's really quite straightforward. As is the unwinding:

https://www.ft.com/content/8e131f28-...a-295c97e6fd0b

Not a subscriber: "Payback time for QE looms — and it will be expensive."

The unwinding may happen slowly, but markets tend to bring forward their reaction.

Not a subscriber... assuming this is about cheap money driving up prices. Agreed. Foreign funny money is presumably a factor too.

[jamesbrown]

Not a subscriber... assuming this is about cheap money driving up prices. Agreed. Foreign funny money is presumably a factor too.

It's worth a read. There are a lot of articles about this, but this one's quite nicely written. You should be able to access individual FT articles via a search engine (searching for the title).

There are some interesting stats in there from BoE analysis. For example, they estimate that house prices would've been 22% lower by 2014 if it weren't for QE. This component of price inflation will inevitably unwind over time. Of course, it was compounded by gov't policy and other factors.

[jamesbrown]

Foreign funny money is presumably a factor too.

Yes, and this is all part of the same thing. Asset prices became highly correlated - house prices were inflated in many countries simultaneously - because multiple central banks were engaged in similar policies whose aim was explicitly to inflate asset prices. The same is true in reverse.

[northernladyuk]

Yes, and this is all part of the same thing. Asset prices became highly correlated - house prices were inflated in many countries simultaneously - because multiple central banks were engaged in similar policies whose aim was explicitly to inflate asset prices. The same is true in reverse.

Far simpler for the gammons to blame immigrants.

[jamesbrown]

Far simpler for the gammons to blame immigrants.

Very little to do with immigration. Immigrants create real demand, and recent inflation has been synthetic demand. Also very little to do with housing starts/completions, for the same reason. Analysis of the housing market in this country is almost as broken as the market itself.