stock market crash

[jamesbrown]

IF only scootie had a brain.

[Whorty]

Did you read the first sentence 'IF'

Desperate retorts by desperate minds, nothing ever changes.

Tell you what fella, why don't you read what you write? I know it's tulip, but go on, give it a go.

If 5720 does not stop the current plummet (the current support)

The support / resistance is around 5980.

Your "If" means nothing as your 2 posts both claim the current FTSE value is the 'support'. It's all you do .... each day, you look at the FTSE and say, yeah, this is the new 'support'.

It would be funny if we didn't know you actually believe what you say.

As for your bet against the FTSE ... I know you claim you don't time the market (even though your posts say otherwise) but come one, give us the date when your bet runs out. These trades always have an end date so come on, when is it? Can't give a date .... your trade doesn't exist.

[jamesbrown]

Tell you what fella, why don't you read what you write? I know it's tulip, but go on, give it a go.





Your "If" means nothing as your 2 posts both claim the current FTSE value is the 'support'. It's all you do .... each day, you look at the FTSE and say, yeah, this is the new 'support'.

It would be funny if we didn't know you actually believe what you say.

As for your bet against the FTSE ... I know you claim you don't time the market (even though your posts say otherwise) but come one, give us the date when your bet runs out. These trades always have an end date so come on, when is it? Can't give a date .... your trade doesn't exist.

That's how charting works. You draw an arbitrary line on a time-series that seems to match an artifact or two and then you pray to the high god of "that line I just drew", repeating for N different artifacts. It isn't a coincidence that the average chartist is a backwoods dwelling, conspiracy theorist, cryptotard.

[Whorty]

I will say this for Scooty, his constant calling my attention to the FTSE value has me looking at it more than I ever have before. Previously I'd dump some cash into an ISA and ignore it, but I'm actively buying and selling tracker funds now.

I don't trade in individual stocks, just funds, but I can still buy and sell daily via Vanguard.

Over the past few months I've been selling some FTSE funds when they go over 61xx and buying back in when the FTSE drops below 59xx. This is about as risky and exciting as it gets for me but it has meant I've consolidated quite a few gains, then bought back in at a lower price.

Seeing how the market is yo-yo-ing around the 6000 mark if feels like the whole market is doing something similar. It doesn't feel like anything major is going to happen on the markets (up or down) until we have something firm in the global fight against CV19 so this strategy coudl work for me for a few more months.

Anyway, making 2-300 points on the FTSE every week or so is working out pretty well I think the only risk is if the market keeps climbing above 61xx when I've sold which will happen at some stage but it's a risk I'm willing to take.

This is NOT advice! Just what this inexperienced fund holder is doing with his 6 figure fund holding

[Whorty]

Can you be brave enough and explain what the the FTSE will close today at 4PM london time? No of course not no one can

Its a forecast for a trend - Not a tick by tick prediction

Of course not, but then I don't claim to be able to or to have a bet against the FTSE by a given date. Scooty, however does.

He claims he has a bet on the FTSE dropping to 4500 - this bet will have an end date. He can call the bet in any time up to the end date, but even so, it does have a date. He refuses to give the date thus either making the bet fictitious, or he's scared to admit what a fool he is.

As for calling the FTSE value each day ... Scooty isn't doing this but what he is doing is constantly claiming the current value is the 'support' point. Absolute rubbish.

Here's my call ... the FTSE will hover around the 6000 point (give or take 300 points) until something major in the world triggers a response from traders in addition to their current cycle of profit taking and buying back in. It could be a vaccine, it could be a massive increase in the CV19 cases, it could be Trump winning (or losing), it could be a cliff edge Brexit.

But, until the market gains confidence, or loses confidence completely, not many people are going to bet big on the market moving too far one way or the other.

Just my view. I don't draw graphs and I don't analyse the markets too closely. I could well be completely wrong. I could be right. I could be writing this in my underwear whilst taking slugs from a bottle of whisky. Who knows

[Whorty]

That's how charting works. You draw an arbitrary line on a time-series that seems to match an artifact or two and then you pray to the high god of "that line I just drew", repeating for N different artifacts. It isn't a coincidence that the average chartist is a backwoods dwelling, conspiracy theorist, cryptotard.

What Scooty may not realise is that I'm (by degree and initial jobs at least) a statistician so I'm fully aware of multivariate analysis .... I'm also aware that depending which variables you throw into the model you can 'prove' anything you want. Whether the forecast is statistically significant, however, is something else

But, hey, each to their own eh?

Thankfully his bet against the FTSE is only a simulation and not real

[scooterscot]

Of course not, but then I don't claim to be able to or to have a bet against the FTSE by a given date. Scooty, however does.

He claims he has a bet on the FTSE dropping to 4500 - this bet will have an end date. He can call the bet in any time up to the end date, but even so, it does have a date. He refuses to give the date thus either making the bet fictitious, or he's scared to admit what a fool

Because I don't care for pennies on the dollar trading every other day during market swings. That's a 'get rich quick' mentality.

[_V_]

That's how charting works. You draw an arbitrary line on a time-series that seems to match an artifact or two and then you pray to the high god of "that line I just drew", repeating for N different artifacts. It isn't a coincidence that the average chartist is a backwoods dwelling, conspiracy theorist, cryptotard.

Anyone can draw a chart, but who can make consistent money trading it? Seems to me, they say things like, if level X holds then level X is a support, but of level X does not hold then the price has broken to the down side.

What's that expression "statin the bleedin obvious"?

I think the chartists think all this stuff makes them look clever, but for anyone with some intelligence it's like "well yeah, of course, so what?"

[scooterscot]

What Scooty may not realise is that I'm (by degree and initial jobs at least) a statistician so I'm fully aware of multivariate analysis .... I'm also aware that depending which variables you throw into the model you can 'prove' anything you want. Whether the forecast is statistically significant, however, is something else

But, hey, each to their own eh?

Thankfully his bet against the FTSE is only a simulation and not real

Those are oscillators I'm using, not variables. What university was it you graduated from?

You above all people should know probabilisitic analysis is a stochastic process independent of deterministic variables subject to constant change.

[scooterscot]

Anyone can draw a chart, but who can make consistent money trading it? Seems to me, they say things like, if level X holds then level X is a support, but of level X does not hold then the price has broken to the down side.

What's that expression "statin the bleedin obvious"?

I think the chartists think all this stuff makes them look clever, but for anyone with some intelligence it's like "well yeah, of course, so what?"

My best return this year was 3000% - could have made 4000% but chose not to be greedy. Charts - just funny lines isn't it?

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