stock market crash

[DimPrawn]

a crash happens when nobody is expecting it.
As long as there are people predicting crash it will not happen

When the last bear turns bullish and all that...

[scooterscot]

a crash happens when nobody is expecting it.
As long as there are people predicting crash it will not happen

Crash or no crash... I think March was a massive warning something is up. It was the largest warning that something is in the post. What did people do? Increase their exposure.

Next week the earning for the last quarter come out. You'll be surprised how optimistic people are given the report on the strong earnings from the banks reported last week.

The Dow Jones chart continues to indicate a massive event is in the post - and it'll affect Bitcoin too... BTC has technically never seen a recession, so it'll be interesting to see how it behaves.

[scooterscot]

When the last bear turns bullish and all that...

Over the coming weeks I'll be rock star status - just you wait....

[DimPrawn]

I thought this was an interesting article published in Feb.

Here'''s how to tell a bear market is coming

There's definitely something very wrong with the S&P500 for example. It's only being propped up by a handful of technology stocks (MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, FB)

I would say the S&P 500 is primed for a crash, it will take some catalyst like a big Covid spike in the USA (seems to be underway).

There might be money to be made from an put option at this stage.

S&P 500’s put-call ratio warns of correction, JPY strength ahead?

Note, this is not investment advice, simply an observation. You might lose money on this, betting against the bull market and FED interventions.

[Andy2]

what's a good website for trading options.

[scooterscot]

There's definitely something very wrong with the S&P500 for example. It's only being propped up by a handful of technology stocks (MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, FB).

Think it was Raoul Pal from real vision who said of the above business... 'truly great businesses, yet together their market capital is now greater than the entire value of the German stock market, the world's 3rd largest exporter after China & the US - just think about that for a moment'

That is terrifying.

[DimPrawn]

Think it was Raoul Pal from real vision who said of the above business... 'truly great businesses, yet together their market capital is now greater than the entire value of the German stock market, the world's 3rd largest exporter after China & the US - just think about that for a moment'

That is terrifying.

[scooterscot]

what's a good website for trading options.

There's plenty - although even now I'm questioning the wisdom playing in the area given the amount of volatility we're about to experience. My collateral is eroding on my put, I reckon in 4-6 months it'll all be gone if the market doesn't go belly up before then. After this I'll stick with the spot markets, it is what I have the most experience in.

[DimPrawn]

what's a good website for trading options.

My advice is don't unless you know how to trade options and really understand volatility and pricing.

If options sound "all Greek to me" then it's probably because it is.

Greeks

[scooterscot]

Dow Jones

The 21-week moving average (yellow line) is 99% certain going to cut through the 200-week (red line) before the end of the month. The angle it is approaching is fast & steep, this is going to be an easy 30% off the market.









What happened to price action the last time the 20 crossed down the 200-week? In summary - nothing good.


September 2008, -40% two months of carnage







October 2001, -20% - worst year for investing at the time





1969 & 1974








Whorty will be along any minute to tell us 'anyone could see that was going to happen'