stock market crash

[DimPrawn]

we will never go back to that low
too much money on the sidelines
sold my shares at breakeven as market wants to go lower.

If they declare bankruptcy their share price will go up like 1000%

You have the right plan. Find the most crashed out, unprofitable, indebted, non-viable companies in the world and pile in....

[BlasterBates]

It's now clear that the stock market will just grind up slowly and eventually economic fundamentals will catch up towards the end of the year.

Buy the dips.

[scooterscot]

I disagree. Look left... Dot.com 2 year long dip. 2008, 2 year long dip. 2020 - 4 year long dip, bottom is due by August 2024. Which is actually not that far away considering the last 10 years Brrrrrr by the FED/BoE.


Dot com, banking crisis of 2008, solvency crisis 2020.

[BlasterBates]

I disagree. Look left... Dot.com 2 year long dip. 2008, 2 year long dip. 2020 - 4 year long dip, bottom is due by August 2024. Which is actually not that far away considering the last 10 years Brrrrrr by the FED/BoE.


Dot com, banking crisis of 2008, solvency crisis 2020.

During the previous two crashes the market dropped as the economy got steadily worse over two years. This time the economy dropped suddenly in March and April and is now steadily improving and will continue to improve.

Stock markets don't go down when the economy improves.

[scooterscot]

Stock markets don't go down when the economy improves.

You think those two things are connected?

Interesting...

[rogerfederer]

I disagree. Look left... Dot.com 2 year long dip. 2008, 2 year long dip. 2020 - 4 year long dip, bottom is due by August 2024. Which is actually not that far away considering the last 10 years Brrrrrr by the FED/BoE.


Dot com, banking crisis of 2008, solvency crisis 2020.

I agree with Scootsy.

Double digit percentage of people furloughed are only employed on a technicality. If furlough disappeared their job is gone, they're basically unemployed otherwise. The economy has taken a huge hit that, due to measurement lag, will also be included in May and June's upcoming figures. It's a bloodbath.

The notion we've hit the bottom in March and April for specific sectors may be true, but I think we are headed for a severe debt crisis. Sensible people save up large deposits, don't overstretch finances; others pee away money and live a lifestyle they can't afford. For the young everything is rented, from mobile phone to car to accommodation. If they downsize - as many seem to be doing already, moving back home - the wheels of the economy stop.

Who here is planning to splash cash on fancy meals, new cars and lifestyle upgrades in 2020? I know I'm not and I know my friends aren't, we've talked about it. The main advantage I can see from all this is a reconfiguration of the high streets and local areas in which chain restaurants started dominating and buying up leases.

I'm out of the markets now and won't be re-entering until I feel sure that the money isn't heading down a drain soon. As Scootsy said: there is a lag between cause and understanding. It's going to be 2021 before we start to see companies falling off a cliff and even more unemployment. Picking up a second hand (repossessed) car and house doesn't do much for the overall tax take versus new builds and new cars. I'll sit back and watch until more certainty is offered.

[BlasterBates]

One thing we missed in all of this was the Bond rally. Bonds of blue chip investment graded companies were 10% down, paying double digit yields. I will note that for next time. Not quite as attractive now, but you could probably get 4-5% if you hunt around.

[BlasterBates]

Who here is planning to splash cash on fancy meals, new cars and lifestyle upgrades in 2020? I know I'm not and I know my friends aren't, we've talked about it. The main advantage I can see from all this is a reconfiguration of the high streets and local areas in which chain restaurants started dominating and buying up leases.

That may be true in the UK but certainly doesn't apply elsewhere. New car registrations in China now almost back to pre-pandemic levels, in Germany they're up about 30% in May and in the US new car registrations doubled in comparison to April.

For example China:

[_V_]

Both the bull and the bear market arguments seem compelling to me, I honestly don't have a clue which way bonds, stocks and commodities will go over the next 12 months.

Therefore I will mostly sit on the sidelines and then look back with hindsight and say "why the hell didn't I buy that!"

[BlasterBates]

Both the bull and the bear market arguments seem compelling to me, I honestly don't have a clue which way bonds, stocks and commodities will go over the next 12 months.

Therefore I will mostly sit on the sidelines and then look back with hindsight and say "why the hell didn't I buy that!"

That's why you "hedge" your bets. I invest half of what I could invest. So if it goes up I win, if it goes down, I wait patiently and put the other half in and win even more. The further it goes down, the faster it rises and the more you make. You need to be both a bull and a bear at the same time.