Conservative poll lead over Labour narrows to just one point

[jamesbrown]

The pollsters got Brexit wrong because a couple of million people who don't usually vote unexpectedly turned up and voted Leave.

I partly agree. Unprecedented things do happen. But, as you may recall, many people preferred not to believe the polling on Brexit, following on from the failures of 2015. Leading up to the referendum, many polls were predicting a leave victory; perhaps as many as those that were predicting a Remain victory in the last few weeks of polling. There was a split between telephone and online polling. I think the last poll predicting a Labour lead was ~200 polls ago. Not only that, but if you dig into the polls, and the anecdotal evidence from both major parties, there's a clear story about what will be required for a hung parliament, which is about the best that Labour can expect, and it will require an unprecedented turnout among younger voters. It could happen. I predict it won't.

[SueEllen]

Not if it is raining and they have their lunches to snapchat around their virtuous circle of facebook friends.

HTH

Young people turnout to vote together and take selfies of themselves at the Polling station.

[sasguru]

I partly agree. Unprecedented things do happen. But, as you may recall, many people preferred not to believe the polling on Brexit, following on from the failures of 2015. Leading up to the referendum, many polls were predicting a leave victory; perhaps as many as those that were predicting a Remain victory in the last few weeks of polling. There was a split between telephone and online polling. I think the last poll predicting a Labour lead was ~200 polls ago. Not only that, but if you dig into the polls, and the anecdotal evidence from both major parties, there's a clear story about what will be required for a hung parliament, which is about the best that Labour can expect, and it will require an unprecedented turnout among younger voters. It could happen. I predict it won't.

Having an interest in the psephology business, knowing many figures in it and talked to them, I wonder if they've changed their methodology rather too far the other way to compensate for their failure to take account of the shy Tory vote last time.
And therefore that the Tory vote this time is exaggerated.
Personally, I think there's an element of that but that the Tory lead is insurmountable.

[AtW]

Tory Scum got only themselves to blame - after big tax increases they intended to increase them further, fook over peoples life with Hard Brexit and yet expect people to vote for them???

Next time maybe they should not promise taking kids lunches and their inheritance.

[jamesbrown]

Having an interest in the psephology business, knowing many figures in it and talked to them, I wonder if they've changed their methodology rather too far the other way to compensate for their failure to take account of the shy Tory vote last time.
And therefore that the Tory vote this time is exaggerated.
Personally, I think there's an element of that but that the Tory lead is insurmountable.

As I recall, the deconstruction of the 2015 polling failure pointed to biased sampling (or sample adjustment) rather than a "shy Tory" effect. Sampling bias, and hence the need for demographic weighting, is an inherent problem with such small sample sizes, which is why I tend to believe the polling trends more than the percentages. However, the story this time around seems to be the turnout filters being applied. You can see this in the raw numbers. For example, I think the last ICM was +4 for the Tories, pre-filter, and +11 afterwards. The polls are in two clear groupings based on self-reported turnout vs. modeled turnout (historical precedent). Those with modeled turnout are predicting a large Tory majority, and this chimes more with the internal polling and canvass returns, insofar as they're reported. Either way, one group of psephologists, perhaps both, are going to look very stupid again.

[darmstadt]

Which one is photoshopped?

[northernladyuk]

Having an interest in the psephology business, knowing many figures in it and talked to them, I wonder if they've changed their methodology rather too far the other way to compensate for their failure to take account of the shy Tory vote last time.
And therefore that the Tory vote this time is exaggerated.
Personally, I think there's an element of that but that the Tory lead is insurmountable.

This election may be particularly tough to predict. I wonder if there could be older shy Corbyn voters who see social care and winter fuel allowance as important issues.

But yes I think Tories will win majority and then the knives will be out for May.

[diseasex]

This election may be particularly tough to predict. I wonder if there could be older shy Corbyn voters who see social care and winter fuel allowance as important issues.

But yes I think Tories will win majority and then the knives will be out for May.

And what exactly makes you want to vote for tory? They are responsible for the shambles we have now. think what you want but the country is in deep ****** crisis

[northernladyuk]

And what exactly makes you want to vote for tory? They are responsible for the shambles we have now. think what you want but the country is in deep ****** crisis

Nothing makes we want to vote Tory. I just think they'll win.

[chopper]

The polls over the past day or so, whilst quite far apart in terms of actual gap, have all fairly consistently shown a slight widening of the gap by a point or so. Ladbrokes have changed their estimate from 360/210 (Tory/Labour seats) yesterday to 370/200. Yougov predicts a far narrower gap.

The Tory lead in Wales they had in April has evaporated in favour of a big Labour lead, and Tories are now polling the same as Labour in Scotland.

Make no mistake, the Conservatives are going to win this election, they will have the most votes and the most seats and almost certainly an overall majority, probably larger than the one they have now. But not a landslide. This is going to be bad for all of us - May has shown herself for not being strong and stable, the terror attacks in the past 3 weeks have been on her watch, probably as a result in the cuts in policing she presided over. Her entire campaign has been about repeating phrases over and over again and putting Corbyn down rather than anything positive to say about the Conservatives - which tells you all you need to know - they simply have nothing good to say. Ultra hard Brexit is coming (she wants out of the ECHR, she always has done). Austerity will continue. Contractors will be buggered (think the Limited Cost Business test used for FRS becoming the new IR35 test).

What has been incredible is that people are voting Conservative because they disagree with some of Labour's policies. I disagree with some of their policies, but more importantly I disagree with ALL of the Conservative policy which is why I could not vote Tory in this election. May is a dreadful leader and "we" are about to hand over a 2 year extension to her leadership without holding her to account, whilst allowing her to remove the bits of the 2015 manifesto which didn't suit her (which were put in to appeal to Lib Dem voters). Theresa May 2017 is the real face of the Tories, the one we didn't really see between 2010 and 2016.