Cryptocurrency

[milanbenes]

I think, Milan, that your instinct is correct in that you smell bulltulip, but you have incorrectly diagnosed the source of the stench. I expect that people with more technical expertise and more inclination to look into it are content that the blockchain 'thing' is secure and that the supply is therefore finite.

The stench, I think, arises from the speculative nature of ownership, and what that says about long-term value. People are piling in because everyone else in piling in and there's a killing to be made. Eventually, they'll all pile out and it will be worthless. But that doesn't mean that the technology is a fraud.

But it's no good telling that to people bought into the mania. Some will get out in time and make a killing off those left holding the baby at the end.

yes no argument.

for sure it is interesting for people sat on piles of money fro unauditable sources

let's value BitCoin, according to google there are about 12,500,000 in circulation today, and at let's say today's exchange rate of $3,100 = 1 BC then the total value of all bitcoins todayin U$D is:

$38,750,000,000

let's assume all BitCoins have been mined and it is indeed finite in supply, at today's exchange rate of $3,100 = 1BC then it would mean the total value of all BitCoins at today's $ echange rate is

$3,100 * 21,000,000 BitCoins = $65,100,000,000

I'd rather calculate valuations with the total number and then there won't be any future surprises (assuming the total number cannot be increased)

So here's the thing, I see one fundamental attraction for BitCoin, one Role for it, and that is as a leaver for people who have piles of currency that they want to transfer to other locations or currencies or store

So let's call these people BitCoin customer's rather than BitCoin investors.

The question is, how many BitCoin potential customers are there in the world and how many $ or the $ equivalent are they sat on, which could potentially be exchanged for BitCoins ?

If all of the how to say it, unauditable money has already piled into BitCoin then there is not much chance of upside apart from from the speculators

But, if only a smaller % of all of the unauditable money in the world has exchanged into BitCoin, and if there is a potential, that the rest of the unauditable money in the world is destined to be exchanged into BitCoins then these are fundamentals which will drive the price higher as opposed to the speculations of members of the CUK community.

Question is, how much more unauditable money is waiting to exchange into BitCoin ?

If we can figure that out, then we have a chance at figuring out a strong driver of potential upside growth outside of the current speculation and with that we could estimate future forex valuations of BitCoin and see whether its worth a buy and hold

Whatta you all think ?

Milan.

[northernladyuk]

yes no argument.

for sure it is interesting for people sat on piles of money fro unauditable sources

let's value BitCoin, according to google there are about 12,500,000 in circulation today, and at let's say today's exchange rate of $3,100 = 1 BC then the total value of all bitcoins todayin U$D is:

$38,750,000,000

let's assume all BitCoins have been mined and it is indeed finite in supply, at today's exchange rate of $3,100 = 1BC then it would mean the total value of all BitCoins at today's $ echange rate is

$3,100 * 21,000,000 BitCoins = $65,100,000,000

I'd rather calculate valuations with the total number and then there won't be any future surprises (assuming the total number cannot be increased)

So here's the thing, I see one fundamental attraction for BitCoin, one Role for it, and that is as a leaver for people who have piles of currency that they want to transfer to other locations or currencies or store

So let's call these people BitCoin customer's rather than BitCoin investors.

The question is, how many BitCoin potential customers are there in the world and how many $ or the $ equivalent are they sat on, which could potentially be exchanged for BitCoins ?

If all of the how to say it, unauditable money has already piled into BitCoin then there is not much chance of upside apart from from the speculators

But, if only a smaller % of all of the unauditable money in the world has exchanged into BitCoin, and if there is a potential, that the rest of the unauditable money in the world is destined to be exchanged into BitCoins then these are fundamentals which will drive the price higher as opposed to the speculations of members of the CUK community.

Question is, how much more unauditable money is waiting to exchange into BitCoin ?

If we can figure that out, then we have a chance at figuring out a strong driver of potential upside growth outside of the current speculation and with that we could estimate future forex valuations of BitCoin and see whether its worth a buy and hold

Whatta you all think ?

Milan.

Everyone will eventually realise that it has no intrinsic value.

[milanbenes]

Everyone will eventually realise that it has no intrinsic value.

yes, but if it really is finite, then it cannot be inflated away by printing more and therefore, if more and more of the world's unauditable money exchanges into BitCoin then the exchange rate will go up, since supply cannot meet demand because it is finite and since unlike fiat currencies, more is not being printed

That's the only fundamental potential upside driver I can see

Milan.

[milanbenes]

yes, but if it really is finite, then it cannot be inflated away by printing more and therefore, if more and more of the world's unauditable money exchanges into BitCoin then the exchange rate will go up, since supply cannot meet demand because it is finite and since unlike fiat currencies, more is not being printed

That's the only fundamental potential upside driver I can see

Milan.

doesn't mean I will buy any though :-)

just curious how to value it and try to figure out the future of it

Milan.

[milanbenes]

funny how when we start discussing the adult side of the subject the children (you know who you are) all go quiet



Milan.

[northernladyuk]

yes, but if it really is finite, then it cannot be inflated away by printing more and therefore, if more and more of the world's unauditable money exchanges into BitCoin then the exchange rate will go up, since supply cannot meet demand because it is finite and since unlike fiat currencies, more is not being printed

That's the only fundamental potential upside driver I can see

Milan.

Being finite is a factor is value, but it is not in itself enough to give value.

[milanbenes]

Being finite is a factor is value, but it is not in itself enough to give value.

agreed it does not dictate value, but it will mean that supply is restricted and therefore if the whole world piles in the price will rise and will not be eroded by inflation through printing more coins

let's say it will help to hold a price up if demand is persistent

Milan.

[Lance]

Everyone will eventually realise that it has no intrinsic value.

It has no intrinsic value, similar to a fiat currency.

Commodities have a value determined by the market.
Currency is an abstraction of that value, also determined by the market.

In reality blockchain currencies are not that much to a normal currency but modernised. This is why banks are investigating the possible uses of blockchain. Whether central banks will ever consider them or not I'm not sure but I think it's more likely than not.

Banks will use them. Central banks may use them if they can find a way to control them. But not Bitcoins obviously.

Is Bitcoin a bubble? Who knows. Only hindsight in the future will tell you. As the most mature cryptocurrency it's more widely accepted and therefore will continue to be used, and by extension of that it will continue to have real value. If a better one comes along, and people decide to use that instead then Bitcoin may prove to be a bubble.


Let's be clear though..... As a currency it's value ONLY exists insofar as what people can trade it for (and I don't mean trade as in speculation I mean it as in trading for goods). Just like every other currency.

If the current value is based on speculation rather than trading for goods, then it is fair to call it a bubble. But I don't think anyone knows for sure if that's true (although I suspect it is).
And if it is a bubble, it's not necessarily going to burst yet.
To me it's a gamble. Just one that's done me better than the gee-gees.

[scooterscot]

No. But got more LiteCoin and Ripple. LC now $41 - strong buy at minute.

ouch - could have saved myself some more there. LC now $34

Down about ~£120k in the last 24hrs... but still well up on the year's beginning. Held a good chuck in dollars but must admit did not think the panic would strike so far.

[FrontEnder]

Everyone will eventually realise that it has no intrinsic value.

You mean FIAT currency?

Most money has no intrinsic value. The paper in your wallet is inherently worthless. The coins have minimal scrap value. The money in your bank account is only valuable because we limit trust in the banks to accurately record transactions and balances etc.

I think the thing to remember is that every form of currency is replaced at some point newer and better suited for the job. Bitcoin is certainty better for some things that make a useful currency. It's volatility at the moment makes it bad for day to day use.