The Big NIC U turn

[AtW]

That's the point. The direction of travel on A50 is going to reach a conclusion (insurmountable roadblock or continuation) sooner than people expect, I think - perhaps shortly after the German elections. Is the Council or the Commission going to win in their approach and how does the Parliament interfere? Everyone is expecting an 18 mo - 2yr process, but I'm skeptical TBH. It will either be an 18mo to 2yr process or it will end much more quickly, implying a GE in the UK. Also, it's easy to repeal the FTP Act.

Until German elections out of the way things won't be clear, that's very nice way to stall negotiations, then 6 months after end of year, and this leaves almost no time for May to get anything - exactly the position EU wants to be in.

[SueEllen]

Until German elections out of the way things won't be clear, that's very nice way to stall negotiations, then 6 months after end of year, and this leaves almost no time for May to get anything - exactly the position EU wants to be in.

You forgot to add the fact that everyone is on holiday for 3 months in summer - both UK MPs, EU council and EU commission.

[VectraMan]

Until German elections out of the way things won't be clear, that's very nice way to stall negotiations, then 6 months after end of year, and this leaves almost no time for May to get anything - exactly the position EU wants to be in.

Probably the position May wants to be in too as then she can blame the EU (which we know works well on the British people) and not take any flack for it.

[jamesbrown]

Exactly.

Mind you it's equally easy for parliament to repeal or amend the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017. That would be fun.

In parallel, they'd need an A50 case in the ECJ to determine reversibility, but I guess the political imperative would win. That's also Corbyn's best shot to getting anywhere near power.

[jamesbrown]

Until German elections out of the way things won't be clear, that's very nice way to stall negotiations, then 6 months after end of year, and this leaves almost no time for May to get anything - exactly the position EU wants to be in.

It really comes down to whether May is going to swallow an upfront methodology for the divorce bill. This will play out very quickly indeed, providing Barnier is given the latitude to press it. Hence my suggestion that it will either go the full period (and more) or it will end very quickly (before the German election, but then ratified afterwards). I'm not talking about progress in the substantive negotiation, I'm talking about crossing the starting line.

[AtW]

It really comes down to whether May is going to swallow an upfront methodology for the divorce bill.

It will take exactly 1 year and 364 days for that methodology to emerge, May will have 24 hours to swallow it.

[SueEllen]

I forgot this may be another reason why Ms May won't want a GE linky unless forced to.

[RonBW]

If they've let you substitute and work how you want, they're treating you as a contractor. Not sure you're providing the best example.

HMRC will have their hands full of low-hanging PS fruit for the next few years, including retrograbs.

My point is that no matter how they treat a "real" contractor in terms of working practice, if they are insisting that for payment purposes they will be paid as if they are inside IR35 on a project or company wide basis then you have plenty to worry about.

It's nothing about what HMRC will do and whether they have their hands full or not. If the client is issuing a blanket rule without looking at individual working practices and contract then you have plenty to worry about.

[LondonManc]

My point is that no matter how they treat a "real" contractor in terms of working practice, if they are insisting that for payment purposes they will be paid as if they are inside IR35 on a project or company wide basis then you have plenty to worry about.

It's nothing about what HMRC will do and whether they have their hands full or not. If the client is issuing a blanket rule without looking at individual working practices and contract then you have plenty to worry about.

Oh I know that, my point was that if you're behaving as a contractor in a role that hasn't been deemed inside IR35 and you have good working practices, as always, you have very little to worry about.