1 in 7 chance of house price falls by 2020

[sasguru]

Atw - Even you must be tired of the bollocks you spout. You are increasingly becoming like Threaded. This is what a lack of female company does to one.

[BlasterBates]

But just think for a moment, if there is a 6% chance of a loss, doesn't that mean the return is garbage over 15 years.

[IR35 Avoider]

With pleasure: pseudo-random generators actually just offer series of numbers following certain formulae which may appear random to an untrained sight. However these numbers are not random, and they also loop in cycles - this undermines whole premise of "Monte Karlo" method because it relies on randomness, not some pre-determined sequence which is not random.

A "psuedo-random" sequence must obviously have sufficient resemblance to the real think to deserve the name. There's nothing in what you've said that explains why you differ with all the rocket scientists in thinking the resemblance is insufficient.

To know exactly why you need to talk to a PhD in numeric analysis - Threaded.

I don't know how you generate a real random sequence, as far as I know all the Phd rocket scientists in the finance industry are using psuedo-random numbers.

[IR35 Avoider]

This improves uniqueness of numbers

The purpose of adding the numbers together is to get numbers for a Normal distribution from a generator for the Uniform distribution, as a consequence of the Central Limit Theorem.

[AtW]

as far as I know all the Phd rocket scientists in the finance industry are using psuedo-random numbers.

Yes, and they can't predict sh1t - this is not because they use wrong numbers however, but because the market is not driven by random stuff, it is driven by expectations that follow cycles - right now the market is on the up, so they all blow the trump implying nothing can go wrong, so quickly they forget what happened just 5 years ago: the awakening will be rude.

[BlasterBates]

Yes, and they can't predict sh1t - this is not because they use wrong numbers however, but because the market is not driven by random stuff, it is driven by expectations that follow cycles - right now the market is on the up, so they all blow the trump implying nothing can go wrong, so quickly they forget what happened just 5 years ago: the awakening will be rude.

Exactly....

...and P/E rations are lower, much lower than they were 5 years ago.

5 years ago the market was at the same level as it was now, but that was 5 years ago, all the same companies make more money thatn they did then so they are worth more.