Article 50 won't be triggered this year under Gove

[mudskipper]

She could, but after that there will be vote of on confidence in Govt, will she survive it?

FTFY

[jamesbrown]

He could, but after that there will be vote of on confidence in Govt, will he survive it?

Tories voting for no confidence in their own, recently elected, PM and Gov't?

[SueEllen]

Tories voting for no confidence in their own, recently elected, PM and Gov't?

They would all just abstain if they bother to show up.

[jamesbrown]

They would all just abstain if they bother to show up.

Who, Labour?

As part of her pitch to become PM, May has been explicit about invoking Article 50 after the negotiating strategy is resolved (early next year) and without a GE, so that's what will happen. Unlike several other candidates, she's straight talking, whether or not you like her (I'm not a massive fan TBH).

It seems that several here are still in the "I'm with Nick" camp.

Good luck with that.

[AtW]

Tories voting for no confidence in their own, recently elected, PM and Gov't?

But far less than 100% of Tories are for Brexit!

And Labour, Lib Dems, SNP + others will vote no confidence easily.

[SueEllen]

But far less than 100% of Tories are for Brexit!

And Labour, Lib Dems, SNP + others will vote no confidence easily.

Why would they do that?

It's not like we have an opposition that works.

[jamesbrown]

But far less than 100% of Tories are for Brexit!

And Labour, Lib Dems, SNP + others will vote no confidence easily.

Seriously, this would be beyond absurd. It's the Remainers in the Tory party, primarily, who want May to win. I think you forget that the Tories are ruthless but, ultimately, they value power far more than principle. There is literally zero possibility that May, recently elected, would face (let alone lose) a confidence vote upon invoking Article 50 through prerogative power. In practice, there's a very good chance she will offer a vote on Article 50 (it's not politically expedient to use prerogative power), but she won't lose it (because it will be seen the same as a confidence vote).

Again, we'll see who's right in due course. I'll happily eat my words if I'm wrong, but I'm confident that I won't be munching

[SueEllen]

ATW you forget many Labour MPs are in constituencies that voted Leave.

To ensure they don't get deselected and that UKIP don't win their seats in 2020 they would have to abstain or not turn up to any vote on evoking Article 50 if there are not informal talks before hand indicating the UK can get what it wants.

The Tories would vote with their PM while the SNP, the parties in NI, Lib Dems and only Labour MPs in constituencies that voted Remain would vote against it.

The only MPs who would then risk losing their seats in 2020 are Tory MPs like mine if the opposition parties got themselves together as they would be voting against the majority of their constituents wishes.

[jamesbrown]

ATW you forget many Labour MPs are in constituencies that voted Leave.

To ensure they don't get deselected and that UKIP don't win their seats in 2020 they would have to abstain or not turn up to any vote on evoking Article 50 if there are not informal talks before hand indicating the UK can get what it wants.

The Tories would vote with their PM while the SNP, the parties in NI, Lib Dems and only Labour MPs in constituencies that voted Remain would vote against it.

The only MPs who would then risk losing their seats in 2020 are Tory MPs like mine if the opposition parties got themselves together as they would be voting against the majority of their constituents wishes.

You raise a good point, but many of the same MPs were advocating to remain, knowing that their constituents (or a significant fraction thereof) were likely to be voting to leave. It's worse now, because they know the results. However, in practice, MPs are frequently misaligned with their constituents on a particular issue (even more with grassroots activists/members), and their job is to represent, but also to think for themselves. My gut instinct is that the vast majority of Labour MPs would vote down an Article 50 motion if they really didn't believe in it, but your point is nevertheless well taken, and some may choose to abstain instead. Anyway, losing an Article 50/confidence vote isn't a real risk IMO, which is why May is quite likely to offer one. It gets trickier when they vote on a specific, negotiated, package, but the pressures are completely different at the end of the Article 50 process (i.e. you're out, either way).

It's also important to remember that Article 50 is just the process for negotiating the terms of exit, and not things like trade per se. It's unlikely that a trade deal would be negotiated within the Article 50 timeframe, which is another reason for delaying its invocation.

[AtW]

As long as they don't order to execute order 66 ...