Eve of referendum polls of polls

[Old Greg]

If you look on the link attached to the op and scroll down you can see that the average was moving further towards brexit. Then suddenly green (referring to the colouring on the link). The pollsters even reported that voting intentions changed during the poll when the news was announced.

Looking at the op link, you can see the average moving back to red (exit) but not as much momentum as before.

I have no idea how accurate the info on the link is, but at face value, the poor woman's murder made a dramatic change to voting intentions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

Post hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin: "after this, therefore because of this") is a logical fallacy (of the questionable cause variety) that states "Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X." It is often shortened to simply post hoc fallacy. It is subtly different from the fallacy cum hoc ergo propter hoc ("with this, therefore because of this"), in which two things or events occur simultaneously or the chronological ordering is insignificant or unknown. Post hoc is a particularly tempting error because temporal sequence appears to be integral to causality. The fallacy lies in coming to a conclusion based solely on the order of events, rather than taking into account other factors that might rule out the connection.

The following is a simple example:

The rooster crows immediately before sunrise; therefore the rooster causes the sun to rise.

[original PM]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

Although the murder of an mp who was actively promoting remain probably does not fall directly into this category.

Almost as if to try and persuade the undecided a plot was hatched to try and demonise the leave campaigners by making them seem like right wing nutters.

The sad thing is you all lapped it up.

[FatLazyContractor]

Nope MF will explain it to you he is the expert on pole.

Which one? The Pole variety? or the "pole" variety?

[GB9]

In many cases I would agree however in this case I find it difficult to believe. It's like saying the dinosaurs died out and coincidentally at the time a massive lump of rock hit the earth but no relation.

History is full of cause and effect.

The graphic shows the polls consistently moving further towards exit until the murder at which point they reverse dramatically. They then start to move back towards exit although from a much lower base.

Even yesterday suggested exit slightly ahead (I may not have seen them all). However, plenty of floating voters and based on history, they will err towards the status quo.

And remember, last week we had the fall in the markets as exit drew ahead until the murder at which point there was the massive bounce.

[Old Greg]

Although the murder of an mp who was actively promoting remain probably does not fall directly into this category.

Almost as if to try and persuade the undecided a plot was hatched to try and demonise the leave campaigners by making them seem like right wing nutters.

The sad thing is you all lapped it up.

JB suggests that the swing to the status quo happens at around this time anyway, so the murder just coinicided with this. Hence post hoc ergo propter hoc.

But now, you bring up a plot. Well, you're in good company latching onto this. Who Killed Jo Cox? | Veterans Today

The Assassination of Jo Cox

On June 16, 2016 Jo Cox, a Member of the British Parliament (MP) from a working class background, was brutally shot and stabbed to death. She was 41 at the time of her tragic death, married, and a mother of two preschoolers. Her alleged assassin, 52-year-old Tommy Mair, is in police custody. According to the official records, apart from 6 MP assassinations related to Ireland’s freedom struggle, the only other MP assassination in British history occurred in 1812.

On June 23, 2016 a controversial referendum is scheduled to take place in the UK, when voters will be asked whether Britain should remain in the European Union or leave (“Brexit”=British Exit). Like the majority of elected British and American politicians, Cox strongly and vocally opposed Brexit. Some initial reports allege that her murderer shouted “Britain First” while carrying the attack. The mass media interpret this alleged war cry as having provided the chief motive for the attack.

Pillars Sustaining the Present Unjust World Order

This essay will take it for granted that the five major countries of the Anglosphere—Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and the US—are controlled by a single entity. This entity in turn shapes historical events, enjoys partial or full control of most countries of the world, and accounts for the near-uniformity of these five countries’ political developments. As far as we can guess, this entity is comprised of a few banking families and their allies in the information, corporate, military, and intelligence worlds. This entity goes by such names as the deep state, bankers, oligarchy, Bilderbergers, and many others. In this column, I shall take this entity’s existence for granted and refer to it as the Invisible Government.

In the UK, in particular, the Invisible Government enjoys near-total control of every aspect of that nation’s life—a control that is much more apparent than in the other four members of the Anglosphere. An article in one of the Invisible Government’s chief propaganda organs clearly underscores the reality of power in the UK:

“Governed either by or on behalf of the people who fleece us, we cannot be surprised to discover that all public services are being re-engineered for the benefit of private capital. . . . The financial sector exploits an astonishing political privilege: the City of London [London’s financial district] is the only jurisdiction in the UK not fully subject to the authority of parliament. In fact, the relationship seems to work the other way. Behind the Speaker’s chair in the House of Commons sits the Remembrancer, whose job is to ensure that the interests of the City of London are recognised by the elected members.”

The Invisible Government seeks to increase its disproportionate share of power and riches in the world, doing so by gradually robbing the vast majority of the world’s people of their possessions and liberties, submerging them in never-ending streams of lies, false flags, and wars, and destroying the biological foundations of life itself. The Invisible Government’s Machiavellian edifice rests on massive, overlapping, mutually-supporting, pillars. These pillars include:

Reign of the Psychopaths: Apart from marginal, small-scale, instances of real democracies, all current political and economic systems on earth are conducive to the rise to power of conscience-less, irresponsible, self-seeking psychopaths. “We must admit to ourselves,” says Mike Krieger, “that there are truly evil geniuses out there, and in most cases these characters have taken control of the power structure.”
Total control of the banking system and of the issuing and coining of money. The critical importance of this aspect is captured in this article and in John Acton’s aphorism: “The issue which has swept down the centuries, and which will have to be fought sooner or later, is the people versus the banks.”

Cloak and Dagger: To secure more power and riches for its members, the Invisible Government often resorts to smears, incarcerations, and murders. It not only silences or murders its influential opponents, but it also targets innocent bystanders who might pose a threat to its power and goals. Also, when this serves its interests, the Invisible Government is perfectly willing to destroy junior members of its own cabal.
Sunshine Bribery: Eric Margolis’ witticism captures the sleaze of global politics: “It’s often cheaper to buy a legislator than a second-hand car.”
Information: From the movie, music, book, and school “industries,” to radio, TV, and newspapers, to online and offline encyclopedias, to bought experts and fake dissidents, to online search engines and social media—the Invisible Government controls most of our sources of information. As a result, all of us are, in varying degrees, denizens of Huxley’s Brave New World.

Human Nature. The Invisible Government capitalizes on a vast array of Belief Perserverance Carl Saganhuman failings to sustain and augment its riches and power. Here are just two examples of such failings. To begin with, we are all manifestly susceptible to indoctrination. This weakness is in turn exacerbated by the tendency to cling to “our” convictions in the face of overwhelming evidence against them.
Controlled, Manipulated, Trivialized, and Rigged Elections. “If voting made any difference,” Mark Twain observed, “they wouldn’t let us do it.”
Broken Electoral Promises. In the absence of real democracy, there is a vast gap between what politicians and parties pledge before elections and what they deliver after elections. Woodrow Wilson and Franklin Roosevelt, for instance, promised peace but, once elected, served the Invisible Government. Through guile, false-flag operations, and propaganda, they dragged their country to catastrophic wars.
Leading, Infiltrating, and Co-Opting the Opposition. This strategy incorporates Lenin’s alleged dictum that “the best way to control the opposition is to lead it.” Indeed, case-by-case studies show that most so-called reform organizations, alternative media outlets, and leading dissidents, serve the interests of the Invisible Government.

Contrived Terror and false-flag Operations. Thomas Jefferson commented on the adverse effects of wars on liberty and prosperity: “Having seen the people of all other nations bowed down to the earth under the wars and prodigalities of their rulers, I have cherished their opposites, peace, economy, and riddance of public debt, believing that these were the high road to public as well as private prosperity and happiness.”
The Conspiracy Theory Bogeyman. Most people had been taught what to think, not how to think. Hence, and thanks to the CIA-ingenious invention of the “conspiracy theory” mumbo jumbo, they cannot readily emerge from the cave of political illiteracy.

Plenty more evidence in the article. It's good you pointed out this plot. Otherwise we might have thought you were a right wing nutter.

[Acme Thunderer]

I think the numbers intending to vote Remain is understated. Basically they are not willing to state they are Remain voters out of fear. I witnessed an incident in my town where an elderly lady for the remain campaign asked someone how the intended to vote. The response was a finger jabbed at her face with the words. "The sooner we are the f****** out the f****** better" and he wasn't some Chav either. Given attitudes like this from leave voters a lot of people will keep their mouths closed about being a Remain voter until they had cast their vote and probably even after it.

[Old Greg]

I think the numbers intending to vote Remain is understated. Basically they are not willing to state they are Remain voters out of fear. I witnessed an incident in my town where an elderly lady for the remain campaign asked someone how the intended to vote. The response was a finger jabbed at her face with the words. "The sooner we are the f****** out the f****** better" and he wasn't some Chav either. Given attitudes like this from leave voters a lot of people will keep their mouths closed about being a Remain voter until they had cast their vote and probably even after it.

I hope that this is the case. But it would be no wonder people are intimidated when you consider that those lining up behind Brexit include UKIP, BNP, EDL, Britain First, SWP, CPGB.

[filthy1980]

I think the numbers intending to vote Remain is understated. Basically they are not willing to state they are Remain voters out of fear. I witnessed an incident in my town where an elderly lady for the remain campaign asked someone how the intended to vote. The response was a finger jabbed at her face with the words. "The sooner we are the f****** out the f****** better" and he wasn't some Chav either. Given attitudes like this from leave voters a lot of people will keep their mouths closed about being a Remain voter until they had cast their vote and probably even after it.

I've gotten the sense that it is the exact opposite

a lot of the labelling and slurs have come from the Remain side calling those who want to leave as closet xenophobes & racists

guess we all see what we want to see

[VectraMan]

In many cases I would agree however in this case I find it difficult to believe. It's like saying the dinosaurs died out and coincidentally at the time a massive lump of rock hit the earth but no relation.

I seem to remember scientists announcing the discovery that the dinosaurs were dying out before the asteroid hit...

Probably the murder of Jo Cox made a few people think about the side they were associating themselves with.

Everybody gets to vote, and only a small minority are loud opinionated people who post on internet forums. We need the moderates to be the voice of reason and as this debate is largely about emotion vs. reason there's still the possibility all the polls are completely wrong.

At this point it feels like waiting for surgery. You hope it'll be okay, but you know at the back of your mind you might wake up with a body part missing.

[Old Greg]

I've gotten the sense that it is the exact opposite

a lot of the labelling and slurs have come from the Remain side calling those who want to leave as closet xenophobes & racists

guess we all see what we want to see

Well if you have evidence that anyone has been casting accusations of xenophobia or racism, you must let us know so we can unite in our condemnation.













http://indy100.independent.co.uk/art...da--WkTYUB18EW