SNP

[TestMangler]

It's one of the few areas where the polls are decisive. The majority of English voters (IIRC around 70% after removing "don't knows") view a LabSNP coalition as undesirable.

Don't know what you see on the news dahn sarf, but the SNP have repeatedly said there would be no formal coalition with Labour. Confidence and supply agreement on certain issues, yes, coalition no.

[jamesbrown]

If any of them have the slightest grain of integrity they ought to respect that the party with the most votes gets to lead the government. And that'll most likely be the Tories. It's going to be a pretty crap day for democracy if the Tories get the most votes and we get Miliband in number 10.

Most votes or most seats? Rest assured any party with one of these will be arguing for their "win" as the moral imperative.

A good way to look at this is whether a majority could be formed (of around 325) to vote down a Queen's Speech. The Tories have very few options in terms of coalition (assuming the Lib Dems are a given, which could, in practice, result in a Tory backbench revolt). In contrast, there are myriad outcomes where the left would have sufficient numbers to vote down a Tory Queen's Speech, i.e. there could be an extended period of uncertainty, but there's very little chance of the Tories remaining in power, even if the left cannot easily form a coalition gov't; in that sense, the opinion polls are quite misleading.

[FatLazyContractor]

All rotten eggs in one basket

Such a pleasure to see so many Scots here!

[Unix]

It's one of the few areas where the polls are decisive. The majority of English voters (IIRC around 70% after removing "don't knows") view a LabSNP coalition as undesirable.

What about a Tory/UKIP/Lib pact?

[jamesbrown]

Don't know what you see on the news dahn sarf, but the SNP have repeatedly said there would be no formal coalition with Labour. Confidence and supply agreement on certain issues, yes, coalition no.

You need to put this into perspective. There is literally no chance that any party (apart from the Lib Dems perhaps ) would concede a coalition in advance of an election, because it would materially reduce their votes. For very good reason, it's standard practice to deny anything other than "we're in it to win it" prior to an election. So you can take pretty much any denials with a pinch of salt. However, one exception to this is a Tory-SNP coalition (or w/ Plaid Cymru for that matter), because a hatred of the Tory ideology runs deep outside of England, particularly in Scotland. In other words, the SNP are not posturing when they rule out a Tory coalition; such an outcome would be unfathomable and completely contrary to SNP objectives (even though they'd quite like an EU referendum as the cover for another exit attempt).

[jamesbrown]

What about a Tory/UKIP/Lib pact?

Possibly, but I can't see how they'd have the numbers. The problem with the UKIP vote is that it's widely distributed, not concentrated, unlike the Lib Dems. This is another reason why the polls (based on %) are misleading. It's unlikely that UKIP would accrue more than a handful of seats and the Lib Dems are likely to lose quite a few (although probably not as many as the polls predict). I believe that Farage has explicitly said he'd be willing to work with the Tories on confidence and supply (and many backbench Tories are borderline kippers anyway, as we know), but not in a coalition. However, as I say, I think it's a hollow gesture, as UKIP are unlikely to have the seats.

[barrydidit]

Is there a reason why these subs can't operate if there are oil rigs about? I gather from a gnarled old salt type that the first rule of the sea is not to run into anything, but surely they have steering wheels and suchlike?

Other than crashing into stuff, the only other thing I can think is they might be constrained to defined lanes, which would compromise their inherent sneakiness.

Any other ideas?

[Batcher]

Is there a reason why these subs can't operate if there are oil rigs about? I gather from a gnarled old salt type that the first rule of the sea is not to run into anything, but surely they have steering wheels and suchlike?

Other than crashing into stuff, the only other thing I can think is they might be constrained to defined lanes, which would compromise their inherent sneakiness.

Any other ideas?

There was an incident way back (in the 80's I think) where a trawler was dragged to the bottom of the sea just off the coast when a sub got trapped in it's nets. The MoD wouldn't admit to it.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...s-1532324.html

[Batcher]

Irish trawlers are affected too:

The day 'Sharelga' was sunk by a sub! - Independent.ie

[barrydidit]

There was an incident way back (in the 80's I think) where a trawler was dragged to the bottom of the sea just off the coast when a sub got trapped in it's nets. The MoD wouldn't admit to it.

That's nowt to do with static installations like oil rigs though. Albeit they would require servicing by boats. Just curious what the MoD's objection might be.