Buying Shares - first time, advice needed

[scooterscot]

I wouldn't buy shares at the moment. The prices are spiking up to the same amounts they were at during the .com and credit crunch collapses.




This is a good time to sell shares and invest in something else. Wait for a year or so after the next crash, then buy!

Advice about buying shares whilst looking at historical data is a bit like using the rear view mirror whilst driving.

[Lightwave]

My chart shows real value, altering later values to account for inflation.

In other words, it assumes that £2.57 today is the same as £1.70 in 2000.

I'll assume you drink halves now, or are you slumming it in Wetherspoons?

People with graphs have predicted 17 of the last 3 crashes as they say.

But then again, my view now is to only buy properly profitable companies.
I have some tech funds which are worth nearly what I paid in 1999.

From the Fool:
The FTSE 100 (FTSEINDICES: ^FTSE) has been a bit of a tease lately. It keeps threatening to bust through its all-time high of 6930, only to go all shy on us.

In fact, it’s kept us on tenterhooks for well over a decade now. The FTSE 100 hit its all-time high way back in 31 December 1999, which will soon be 15 years ago.

YMMV

[NickyBoy]

Take the graph how you like. Use dumb tulip about pint prices to determine your investments too, if you want. Suckers on the market are what make money for everyone else, so its all good.


I picked up shares near the bottom of the dip after the credit crunch (I didn't get it quite right, it carried on falling for 6 months after I bought in and then swung up again) and recently offloaded them for a pretty penny. I'll do the same during the next dip as well.

I'm doing a staged movement of my money with the assumption the next big dip will be within a year to two years, with a risk of a housing value crash or an escalation in Eastern Europe bringing the next crash on sooner (I don't consider the EU debt malarkey to be a problem as that's already priced into the market).

I might be wrong, in which case I loose a little from opportunity cost when my safety investments don't keep up with the shares I could still be holding.

If I'm right, I save a lot and will be well positioned to buy up during the next dip.

Even if you think we are only 3/4 of the way up the current spike, its still not a great time to purchase as the amount you can make will be limited to variations within that last 1/4 and you are going to have to surf right up to the edge of the next crash to make the most of that. Too much risk for too little gain IMO.

[EternalOptimist]

lose

[SueEllen]

Take the graph how you like. Use dumb tulip about pint prices to determine your investments too, if you want. Suckers on the market are what make money for everyone else, so its all good.

blah blah blah blah

blah blah blah blah

blah blah blah

You seemed to have ignored the first post where EO said he had done his research.

[Lightwave]

Take the graph how you like. Use dumb tulip about pint prices to determine your investments too, if you want. Suckers on the market are what make money for everyone else, so its all good.


I picked up shares near the bottom of the dip after the credit crunch (I didn't get it quite right, it carried on falling for 6 months after I bought in and then swung up again) and recently offloaded them for a pretty penny. I'll do the same during the next dip as well.

I'm doing a staged movement of my money with the assumption the next big dip will be within a year to two years, with a risk of a housing value crash or an escalation in Eastern Europe bringing the next crash on sooner (I don't consider the EU debt malarkey to be a problem as that's already priced into the market).

I might be wrong, in which case I loose a little from opportunity cost when my safety investments don't keep up with the shares I could still be holding.

If I'm right, I save a lot and will be well positioned to buy up during the next dip.

Even if you think we are only 3/4 of the way up the current spike, its still not a great time to purchase as the amount you can make will be limited to variations within that last 1/4 and you are going to have to surf right up to the edge of the next crash to make the most of that. Too much risk for too little gain IMO.

Fine, but you are plain wrong about your chart being inflation adjusted.
For sure there are risks in the stock market.
But IMHO, the housing market is more of a bubble.
And at least the stock market is liquid, I can sell everything within a day of losing my nerve, try that with a house.

[SimonMac]

I wouldn't buy shares at the moment. The prices are spiking up to the same amounts they were at during the .com and credit crunch collapses.




This is a good time to sell shares and invest in something else. Wait for a year or so after the next crash, then buy!

Look at the gap between 1985-1990 and 2005-2010, if they were to similar scale it will not look as impressive, what you will see is that shares dealing for the amateur is a marathon not a sprint, carefully selected blue chips will provide a steady growth.

Most short term players these days are all done with electronic trading platforms which the average length that a share is held for is in the minutes, if not seconds capitalizing on minute changes but with big stakes.

I wonder if in 1995 people were saying 3500 is the most it will ever go to, its bound to crash back to 1-2k!

[tarbera]

If 100% risk adverse just buy premium bonds

[SimonMac]

Hi folks
I am normally 100% risk averse, and so is the missus, but I need to shift some money out of the bank.
So as a noob, how would I go about buying 10k worth of shares ?
I know which ones I will be getting, so it's the mechanics of it that I am after

serious comments only please.

Back to the original question, I use HL, they are a little expensive but their service is one of the simplest around

[Lightwave]

Look at the gap between 1985-1990 and 2005-2010, if they were to similar scale it will not look as impressive, what you will see is that shares dealing for the amateur is a marathon not a sprint, carefully selected blue chips will provide a steady growth.

......!

Not just steady growth, but also a dividend yield in many cases.
Some of mine are doing 3%, in an ISA, which beats the BuildSoc.

Wish I'd sold my Royal Mules at the peak though.....