State of the Market

[KinooOrKinog]

Under 30 released from lockdown in May
Under 40 released from lockdown in June
Under 50 released from lockdown in august
Under 60 released from lockdown in October
60+ kept in lockdown until cure

Will be the pattern I suspect

The jobs and contracts will go to the younger folk rather than older (with more experience)


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That would be impossible to enforce, surely.

[LondonManc]

That's a coincidence, the only two leads I've got at the moment are direct with clients as well. It seems like a really long time since I've talked to an agent with a real role.

Interesting. On LinkedIn, over the last six months, I've noticed some agents that I've worked with in the past announcing that they are now Talent Acquisition Manager at ClientCo. There seems to be a shift of the decent agents away from pimping/sales to safer jobs at clients with a regular income, far less pressure and normal working hours. Can't say I blame those with a soul leaving the bear pit.

[caffeine man]

Just my 2c and I'm not trying to be alarmist and if someone wants to persuade me I am wrong then that's fine.
The talk of countries relaxing their lockdown rules is cause for real concern.
Although the NHS came out today to say that they now had sufficient resources to cope with a Coronavirus peak - the mortality rate continues to run at extremely high numbers.
People are not dying because they cannot get a bed in ICU or not being admitted into hospitals - they are dying in ICU, on ventilators.
There is a 50:50 chance of survival if you get admitted into ICU despite the best efforts of the brave NHS staff. There is no cure, all they can do is manage the symptoms and hope that your body can fight off the infection.
We cannot afford to relax the lockdown until a cure or vaccine is available and that's how long the market is going to depressed.

Once there is sufficient capacity in the health service to deal with Covid, then that is the point where a country should relax the lock down. Waiting a year or so for a vaccine is too long. Of course some will die as you relax. But GDP is already down 35% . You cannot keep that going.


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[LondonManc]

Once there is sufficient capacity in the health service to deal with Covid, then that is the point where a country should relax the lock down. Waiting a year or so for a vaccine is too long. Of course some will die as you relax. But GDP is already down 35% . You cannot keep that going.

It's got to be a UK-wide panel of NHS people that decides if capacity is sufficient but there will no doubt be pressure on them from industry to get up and running again.

[Paralytic]

Once there is sufficient capacity in the health service to deal with Covid, then that is the point where a country should relax the lock down. Waiting a year or so for a vaccine is too long. Of course some will die as you relax. But GDP is already down 35% . You cannot keep that going.

No it hasn't. One forecast is that it could fall by that amount in the second half of this year.

[sal]

Just my 2c and I'm not trying to be alarmist and if someone wants to persuade me I am wrong then that's fine.
The talk of countries relaxing their lockdown rules is cause for real concern.
Although the NHS came out today to say that they now had sufficient resources to cope with a Coronavirus peak - the mortality rate continues to run at extremely high numbers.
People are not dying because they cannot get a bed in ICU or not being admitted into hospitals - they are dying in ICU, on ventilators.
There is a 50:50 chance of survival if you get admitted into ICU despite the best efforts of the brave NHS staff. There is no cure, all they can do is manage the symptoms and hope that your body can fight off the infection.
We cannot afford to relax the lockdown until a cure or vaccine is available and that's how long the market is going to depressed.

The goal of the lockdown is to allow expansion of healthcare capacity to allow the 50% of the ICU survivors to get ICU bed and get the 50% chance of survival in the first place, not to save the 50% that die even on ventilator, they are screwed either way. It might sound brutal, but this is the reality.

Until there is a reliable vaccine and it's administered to a sizeable portion of the world population Covid19 (and it's inevitable mutations) will rampage throughout the world. The process of vaccinating that amount of people will take years. You can't keep the lockdown for years.

Herd immunity is much easier/faster to achieve and gradual, controlled relaxation of the lockdown will get that result, ultimately protecting the vulnerable people that are likely to die of Covid19.

It's a balancing act, on the other end of the scales are millions who live in poverty or on the verge of poverty and are in danger of dying of non-covid19 causes due to economic collapse and lack of social security.

[mrdonuts]

Steve

The thing to look for is the infection fatality rate and the truth is until we do mass testing nobody knows what that is although it could be extremely low.

Of the countries that did any significant testing like Iceland the rate was 0.4%.

It’s all well and good locking down until we have a cure but if the economy collapses and we can no longer afford a health service then there really is a limit to how long this can last despite the risks.

New Scientist article which explains a little better.


Why we still don't know what the death rate is for covid-19 | New Scientist

there maybe some very significant long term health implications given the effects it seems to be having on the t cells, i would not want to catch this even if the immediate effects may appear transitory

[sal]

Back on topic:

Finished my last contract at the end of February. First half of March was promising, even though there were like 1-2 roles Outside IR35 per day I managed to get a couple of interviews two of them with former clients, which kept me optimistic.

Fast forward to second half of March. Two of the roles I interviewed for got canned due to Covid19 uncertainty/budget cuts (including one of the former clients). Lost the other former client role to someone just slightly better fit than me...

Since the lockdown there were like 2-3 roles/week with 100s applying for them and agents playing bidding wars to drive the already mediocre rates further down - no thanks.

Bit the bullet and applied for a couple of decently paid perm roles(£75k+ vs. usual £400ish/day, got three second stage interviews in a week. One got hiring freeze indefinitely due to Covid19, the other offered me £80k, cancelled the 3rd second stage interview as it was the worse role and didn't/couldn't match the £80k offer I already had on the table.

About £10k/year net pay loss based on real numbers aggregated from the last several years, not on hypothetical math, which were otherwise going into savings, but other than that we can keep the current budget without issues. The missus was going to get back to work after 6 years of child raising, which would have pretty much killed the benefit of £400pd vs £80k salary in terms of net income, so not that big of a loss. Besides 2 months on the bench, which was quite the possibility in the current climate would have costed us £10k of lost income from the perm job regardless.

Not bad start of my permy carrier with two 4-day weeks around Easter and 2 more coming in May at full pay Also 100% WFH for the foreseeable future, which sets a curious precedent.

[Paralytic]

Well done sal, that's a decent result given where the market is at.

[jayn200]

Back on topic:

Finished my last contract at the end of February. First half of March was promising, even though there were like 1-2 roles Outside IR35 per day I managed to get a couple of interviews two of them with former clients, which kept me optimistic.

Fast forward to second half of March. Two of the roles I interviewed for got canned due to Covid19 uncertainty/budget cuts (including one of the former clients). Lost the other former client role to someone just slightly better fit than me...

Since the lockdown there were like 2-3 roles/week with 100s applying for them and agents playing bidding wars to drive the already mediocre rates further down - no thanks.

Bit the bullet and applied for a couple of decently paid perm roles(£75k+ vs. usual £400ish/day, got three second stage interviews in a week. One got hiring freeze indefinitely due to Covid19, the other offered me £80k, cancelled the 3rd second stage interview as it was the worse role and didn't/couldn't match the £80k offer I already had on the table.

About £10k/year net pay loss based on real numbers aggregated from the last several years, not on hypothetical math, which were otherwise going into savings, but other than that we can keep the current budget without issues. The missus was going to get back to work after 6 years of child raising, which would have pretty much killed the benefit of £400pd vs £80k salary in terms of net income, so not that big of a loss. Besides 2 months on the bench, which was quite the possibility in the current climate would have costed us £10k of lost income from the perm job regardless.

Not bad start of my permy carrier with two 4-day weeks around Easter and 2 more coming in May at full pay Also 100% WFH for the foreseeable future, which sets a curious precedent.

I think you did really well. I am at 500 per day for current and last couple contracts and I tried to look at perm jobs and no one had any interest in me over 70k. I just couldn't justify that big of a cut.

What do you do? Is it a technical role?