State of the Market

[agentzero]

What a moronic thing to say. People moan because services are already incredibly expensive while being utter tulipe. If you give them extra money they will waste it on trash nobody wants such as cycle lanes, rewilding city centers, 20 mph speed limits etc.

What we really need is a reimagined system where people select which services they wish to contribute to and that is the amount they have to spend. If only 5% want a cycle lane, but 90% want a weekly bin emptying, then that's what we get. Not the opposite where the vast majority get their bins emptied once a fortnight but there are unused cycle lanes everywhere.

England doesn't have high tax rates. They are among the lowest in Europe in comparison to countries nearby. So yeah, not comparing us to poor Latvia.

Pay more, get more.

[squarepeg]

I've had a couple of calls from agents who seem to be sorting out their bank of available contractors; I presume in the hope that post-budget there will be work coming

Clients are keeping their purses closed until the budget. If NI insurance goes up there may be more interest in hiring contractors.

I am seeing more PM roles outside IR35 being offered recently (last four months). Not sure if it's a sign of recovery, the theory being that if PM roles are coming back then other roles will follow, including roles outside IR35. A dev colleague of mine was offered a three-month contract with 2 days notice. I was surprised as I have not heard of notice shorter than two weeks before, but I guess we need to adapt to the new reality. Clients are keeping their purses closed until the budget. If NI insurance for employers goes up there may be more interest in hiring contractors. We have to get real about the size of recovery though, a lot of roles went offshore and are not coming back for a while, if ever.

[jamesbrown]

Material drop in inflation today, FWIW.

[escapeUK]

England doesn't have high tax rates. They are among the lowest in Europe in comparison to countries nearby. So yeah, not comparing us to poor Latvia.

Pay more, get more.

And how are house prices in comparison? We are a poor nation because housing, energy and taxes are far too high.

Guardian story from 2022, so probably much worse now. "Average UK household £8,800 a year worse off than those in France or Germany"

So no, lets pay much less, and get the same. Which for me is almost nothing.

[edison]

Material drop in inflation today, FWIW.

After August's base rate cut, maybe we might get another 0.25% cut this year which at least might show the interest rate cycle is starting to trend downwards.

However, in the grand scheme of things, the budget in two weeks should give us much more of an idea if things might take a turn for the better in the next 6-12 months. I'm not holding out a lot of hope with all the other factors affecting the market.

[jamesbrown]

After August's base rate cut, maybe we might get another 0.25% cut this year which at least might show the interest rate cycle is starting to trend downwards.

However, in the grand scheme of things, the budget in two weeks should give us much more of an idea if things might take a turn for the better in the next 6-12 months. I'm not holding out a lot of hope with all the other factors affecting the market.

Two cuts are currently priced in before the EOY, but Feb if not Dec for the second. Heading in the right direction for improved business investment, but there are so many other factors, as you say.