State of the Market

[SchumiStars]

Has anyone experienced a slump like this? This is bad man, never seen it like this at all.

I bet a lot of recuritment companies have closed up shop. Not even getting the calls from India anymore.

[squarepeg]

Has anyone experienced a slump like this? This is bad man, never seen it like this at all.

I bet a lot of recuritment companies have closed up shop. Not even getting the calls from India anymore.

This is nothing new. It began in 2019/20 when IR35 kicked in for real. The market tanked and 2023 was a nuclear winter. I had two interviews over 6 months and one client. This year, second quarter started showing some green shoots of recovery, but now of course Labour will take care of that. I've been getting messages all week from colleagues getting terminated even those who were recently extended or delivered project that were supposed to go into next stage. I think the Labour honeymoon is over.

[Unix]

Has anyone experienced a slump like this? This is bad man, never seen it like this at all.

I bet a lot of recuritment companies have closed up shop. Not even getting the calls from India anymore.

It's never been this bad in my 15 years of contracting, I've not asked for a rate rise for my extension even though I've been there 2+ years on the same rate, just grateful I've avoided the bench so far. Hopefully things will pickup once interest rates are cut a few more times and US elections are over, but can't see it improving till mid 2025.

This always happens when interest rates are pushed up to control inflation, the intention is people lose their jobs and spend less lowering inflation, since inflation effects everyone but unemployment only a small percentage it's the lesser of two evils.

[squarepeg]

It's never been this bad in my 15 years of contracting, I've not asked for a rate rise for my extension even though I've been there 2+ years on the same rate, just grateful I've avoided the bench so far. Hopefully things will pickup once interest rates are cut a few more times and US elections are over, but can't see it improving till mid 2025.

This always happens when interest rates are pushed up to control inflation, the intention is people lose their jobs and spend less lowering inflation, since inflation effects everyone but unemployment only a small percentage it's the lesser of two evils.

Rates are only one factor. Large clients converted thousands of contractors to inside IR35 and used this as an excuse to lower rates. Smaller recruitment shops got pushed out of the market, because the only option left for them was to provide contractors to large consultancies who in turn resell them to the clients. The margins just don't work for them. When those smaller agencies disappeared or when their contract recruiters got fired there was nobody left to support clients who were interested in hiring contractors outside IR35. Consequently, the number of outside IR35 roles released in my area of expertise (software development) in 2023 was less than 10.

I have little hope for things to change before the next election. Labour introduced the IR35 legislation in 1999 and now, 25 years later, they are finally firing the last contractors from the public sector. Civil servants must rejoice at the thought of those miscreants getting kicked out. They managed to deliver their revenge no matter who was in power. The fact that they also nuked one good option to push for a wage rise seems to elude them. But hey, they slashed our tires... :-)

[unixman]

Has anyone experienced a slump like this?

In a word, no. Longest benching in 18 years, longer even than in the 2008 credit crunch. And, no obvious cause. However, I think the seeds are germinating, so chin up...

[OzzieExpat]

In a word, no. Longest benching in 18 years, longer even than in the 2008 credit crunch. And, no obvious cause. However, I think the seeds are germinating, so chin up...

Never been out more that 3 months. Month 4 is August, but there may be a slight pick up. All contractors get bench time and market demand does fluctuate. However this is the worst I have seen over 25 years.

[ladymuck]

Yeah, it's the worst I've experienced since I started out in 2005.

No bites, unicorn expectations, bad rates.

[SussexSeagull]

It's bad but it is August and I have had a couple of interviews. Problem is that no doubt very good people are also interviewing for the same contracts.

I live in the South East so tend to find the City calls the tune with the contract market even if you have never worked there. I can imagine a lot of contractors are looking elsewhere than the City as being Inside is the default setting now. This might partially explain increased competition.

[willendure]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/glob...-1-2024-08-02/

Stocks plunge on recession fears. Fed didn't cut last meeting, but BofE did (just a little). Been saying it for months, but a recession is coming, and likely a fairly severe one. US debt will grow significantly, long term interests rates will rise - even as short is cut low to deal with the crisis. As in 2020, Fed will also expand its balance sheet, since interest rate cutting won't be enough. Why? because there is too much debt. Beyond this deflationary event, that I expect to play out over the next 1 year, inflation will rise because the debt cannot be defaulted on.

Personally, I am going to be playing defensive with what little capital I have. I believe this is the time to be risk-off - businesses know this too, that is why there are layoffs and no hiring at present.

I also think that sentiment amongst the general population will not come to realize this until the media give it a name. Like "the credit crunch"or "covid", once people can name it, they will take it to be real, but not before. So there is still time to arrange your life as best you can against risk.

[willendure]

I have little hope for things to change before the next election. Labour introduced the IR35 legislation in 1999 and now, 25 years later, they are finally firing the last contractors from the public sector. Civil servants must rejoice at the thought of those miscreants getting kicked out. They managed to deliver their revenge no matter who was in power. The fact that they also nuked one good option to push for a wage rise seems to elude them. But hey, they slashed our tires... :-)

My problem with this new Labour administration is that they seem to view commercial activity as a dirty thing, to be eliminated. How dare people be so crude as to want to earn and keep money, to build wealth. Reves might be an economist, but a political one, and one that believes in some pretty marxist bs. Harris too. Chirst, its just about enough to make me think that Trump might be a good idea, though I believe he will not do anything remotely effective, and will just do more bailing out to win political favour.