Just looking at Hard Brexit from the EU perspective...

[RetSet]

Can somebody please confirm my understanding. I've been looking at the figures here: Net contributors to the budget? / EU Information Centre - Home

As far as I can see, total net contributions in 2014 were around 41.8 billion Euro, of which the UK contributed 8.6 billion, or 21% of the total.

So, in the event of a Hard Brexit, what plans have the EU put in place to deal with an instant 21% budget cut? When faced with this scenario, why would the EU threaten Britain with a Hard Brexit?

I don't think the UK is expecting a drop in GDP of 20% in the event of hard Brexit, is it?

Can somebody clarify without name calling, please?

[DimPrawn]

Can somebody clarify without name calling, please?

Are you new here?

[shaunbhoy]

Can somebody please confirm my understanding. I've been looking at the figures here: Net contributors to the budget? / EU Information Centre - Home

As far as I can see, total net contributions in 2014 were around 41.8 billion Euro, of which the UK contributed 8.6 billion, or 21% of the total.

So, in the event of a Hard Brexit, what plans have the EU put in place to deal with an instant 21% budget cut? When faced with this scenario, why would the EU threaten Britain with a Hard Brexit?

I don't think the UK is expecting a drop in GDP of 20% in the event of hard Brexit, is it?

Can somebody clarify without name calling, please?

You won't get far with that sort of realistic approach on here. Expect a torrent of abuse once the resident Bremoaners have changed their underwear.

[AtW]

As far as I can see, total net contributions in 2014 were around 41.8 billion Euro, of which the UK contributed 8.6 billion, or 21% of the total.

8.6 bln EUR is roughly 0.29% of Germany's GDP.

Even better -

"The German government reported a record half-year surplus, even though the overall economy slipped back a gear in the second quarter after a solid gain in domestic demand failed to offset weaker trade. Germany's federal budget surplus hit a record 18.3 billion euros ($21.6 billion) for the first half of 2017 thanks to a solid economic performance and rising tax revenue, according to the Federal Statistics Agency (Destatis) on Friday."

Source: German budget surplus hits a record | Business | DW | 25.08.2017

Do you seriously think Germany would risk breakdown of EU for the sake of spare change?

They'll benefit from movement of finance into Germany and slow final death of UK's car manufacturing. Long term gains more than offset tiny budget cost, which in any case will get some contribution from others, so Germany will probably only pay 4-5 bln extra.

[tomtomagain]

8.6 bln EUR is roughly 0.29% of Germany's GDP.

Even better -

"The German government reported a record half-year surplus, even though the overall economy slipped back a gear in the second quarter after a solid gain in domestic demand failed to offset weaker trade. Germany's federal budget surplus hit a record 18.3 billion euros ($21.6 billion) for the first half of 2017 thanks to a solid economic performance and rising tax revenue, according to the Federal Statistics Agency (Destatis) on Friday."

Source: German budget surplus hits a record | Business | DW | 25.08.2017

Do you seriously think Germany would risk breakdown of EU for the sake of spare change?

They'll benefit from movement of finance into Germany and slow final death of UK's car manufacturing. Long term gains more than offset tiny budget cost, which in any case will get some contribution from others, so Germany will probably only pay 4-5 bln extra.

Exactly. The Germans are just going to make up the shortfall.

No need for any belt-tightening in the EU.

And luckily for the EU26 ( ex-Germany ) the Germans won't attach any conditions to their extra contributions. They are happy Europeans and cannot think of a better use for their taxes.

[AtW]

Just watch how Germany expands after Brexit and Britain - declines.

[northernladyuk]

Can somebody please confirm my understanding. I've been looking at the figures here: Net contributors to the budget? / EU Information Centre - Home

As far as I can see, total net contributions in 2014 were around 41.8 billion Euro, of which the UK contributed 8.6 billion, or 21% of the total.

So, in the event of a Hard Brexit, what plans have the EU put in place to deal with an instant 21% budget cut? When faced with this scenario, why would the EU threaten Britain with a Hard Brexit?

I don't think the UK is expecting a drop in GDP of 20% in the event of hard Brexit, is it?

In what way can you consider that a reduction in net contributions to the EU of 21% is in any way equivalent to a 20% reduction in GDP for the UK?

Can somebody clarify without name calling, please?

You don't make it very easy.

[bobspud]

Just watch how Germany expands after Brexit and Britain - declines.

How?

Where are they going to sell their wares that they couldn't already sell them today? most of Europe is on an upward tick thanks to QE just like the UK in the past decade. There isn't any new market that will be suddenly open to them just the same goldfish bowl we are now on the outside of. And yes we are indeed about to lose some EU clearing trade and I guess thats just tough but what happens if we were to go for access to Mexico's markets instead? The London stock exchange was banned from the German Merger. Nothing to stop it mopping up some of the other markets...

[AtW]

How?

Good long term policies, such as flat rate dividend tax at 25%.

[bobspud]

Good long term policies, such as flat rate dividend tax at 25%.

and when Southern Ireland cottons on and makes it 12%? then what?