Share Investment, Discussion & Tips

[AtW]

It's a big play on China. China catches a cold, Glencore dies of pneumonia.

And then China buys company on the cheap...

[tomtomagain]

For all those bottom feeders out there. Don't forget a share that has fallen 90% is one that has fallen 80% and then halved.

[AtW]

For all those bottom feeders out there. Don't forget a share that has fallen 90% is one that has fallen 80% and then halved.

And don't forget that it can still drop 90% ...

[DimPrawn]

For all those bottom feeders out there. Don't forget a share that has fallen 90% is one that has fallen 80% and then halved.

Or to put it another way, a share that has fallen 90% has to rise 1000% to get back where it started....

[BlasterBates]

If you were to close Glencore tomorrow and sell it's assets, you could pay off it's debts and distribute the rest to the shareholders, and they would have a 300% profit.

That is how ridiculous the Glencore valuation is.

...and their assets aren't difficult to evaluate, because they consist of millions and millions of tons of Copper and Zinc.

[pjclarke]

And don't forget that it can still drop 90% ...

A risk, given debt is now approx 2x market cap at current price. Sharks are circling.

[pjclarke]

If you were to close Glencore tomorrow and sell it's assets, you could pay off it's debts and distribute the rest to the shareholders, and they would have a 300% profit.

That is how ridiculous the Glencore valuation is.

...and their assets aren't difficult to evaluate, because they consist of millions and millions of tons of Copper and Zinc.

Is it not exactly the drop in commodity prices that have caused the rout? Meaning the assets are nearly impossible to evaluate reliably.

[AtW]

If you were to close Glencore tomorrow and sell it's assets, you could pay off it's debts and distribute the rest to the shareholders, and they would have a 300% profit

Nah, you would not.

When such things happen always some new liabilities found, long term leases, not all metals accounted for ...

[BlasterBates]

I checked all the current analyst recommendations.

Apart from this analyst from "Investec" (who the f*** is Investec) who said they were worthless and therefore have a sell recommendation and caused the panic, the most critical is Goldman Sachs who pointed out that Glencore might lose the BBB rating and therefore left them on Neutral.

That's Neutral, not reduce not sell, not imminently bankrupt , yes Neutral because they lose BBB. With BBB they're a huge buy.

Virtually every bank has them on either hold, neutral or buy, most have buy recommendations. What we saw yesterday appears to me to be hysterical teenage girls working on the commodities desk at some hedge funds.

So on that note I will be keeping Glencore on my portfolio. Lots of commentators pointing out they've got tons of assets ie. mines to sell to restructure.

[AtW]

That's Neutral, not reduce not sell, not imminently bankrupt , yes Neutral because they lose BBB. With BBB they're a huge buy.

That's neutral until their clients sell...