Facebook shares

[fullyautomatix]

It's foolish to think Facebook has no future or to underestimate its power. Just like how Google has remained unchallenged and is making billions, Facebook will remain unchallenged for a while. During this time, they have the power to make billions just by advertising revenue.

Where Facebook advertising is unique to Google is that in Facebook you can specify what interests you and you "like" items. Advertisers can then target this "like".

Google has tried to compete with Orkut and Google plus but has failed miserably. Facebook is like an untapped oil well.

The Arab spring uprising happened due to Facebook. Without a medium like Facebook we would not have seen dictators being removed from power they held for decades.

Even governments all over are getting wary of Facebook and how much power it gives to its users.

Only a fool would argue that FB is not worth what investors think its worth.

[escapeUK]

There has been a lot of press noise, but their core demograph couldn't give a tulip about privacy of photos etc (ok... don't care as MUCH as most adults who don't GET social networks)
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The core demographic ie kids and students, have no money. Not the best people to target an advertising campaign at. I just turned my adblocker off, and the adverts on facebook are for a massage parlour and a company that sells shelving. I dont know if that is representative, but seems very low rent to me.

What is the "value" of being able to post a picture of yourself, or be able to read that someone you havent spoke to in 3 years just had a pizza. Who really cares?

I must be a fool, but I am quite happy for someone to refer back to this post in some years and we can see what actually happened.

Even governments all over are getting wary of Facebook and how much power it gives to its users.
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Governments are famous for jumping on the band wagon of something they dont really understand. Bird flu anyone? Doing the exact opposite of everything the government has ever advised has served me well.

[jmo21]

The core demographic ie kids and students, have no money. Not the best people to target an advertising campaign at.

What's the point of any advertising then? Kids will never buy the new xbox game, or pepsi, or frosties, or that new alcopop.

ALL advertising is about getting something sublimally into people's mind so when they can buy something, they do.

Tv, print, product placement, in person ads (billboards, buses etc) were followed by Internet banner ads.

The next evolution of Internet ads is social ads, where a company can get you to click and advertise them to your friends - the normal banner-ads are incidental on Facebook.

Investors see big potential, Google (an advertising company, not a search company) think the same.

Will it be Facebook that does it well enough? I think it's worth a flutter.

The next big thing coming along is already here, IF they can figure out how to monetize it, and that's twitter. I'll be trying to invest in that when they IPO as well.

[escapeUK]

Twitter and facebook will be as popular in the future as Myspace, Yahoo, Altavista and hotornot are today. But hey, its your money do what you think best.

http://mankabros.com/onmedea/2010/07...worthless.html

[jmo21]

Twitter and facebook will be as popular in the future as Myspace, Yahoo, Altavista and hotornot are today. But hey, its your money do what you think best.

Facebook Is Worthless - OnMedea

A lot of people made a lot of money on shares like those, I'm not planning holding them forever :-)

[d000hg]

The core demographic ie kids and students, have no money. Not the best people to target an advertising campaign at.

Please tell me that's sarcasm, surely nobody can be THAT stupid?

Students are one of the biggest markets for smartphones, and as for kids, maybe you've heard of a small startup called Toys'R'Us? Some companies even managed to make money from novelties called PlayStation/XBox/Wii/DS.

edit: you neg-rep people who point out your idiocy? That must be an endless task?

[yasockie]

FYI, totally unscientific etc, but my recent experience is all the brighter ones around have set up google plus account, but after a short blip of activity there, it's all pretty much back to facebook.
I've witnessed that in the past, where every network eventually failed as it limited itself for being only for professionals, for people from the same school (classmates.com), nobody want be excluded from a social clique, for some artificial reason, especially if they do belong.
Initially I'd though of G+ circles as a great idea as we are multi faceted people and all, but truth being told it's the defaults that matter, also FB seems to me like a lowest common denominator - like a local watering hole compared to a country club. The elite club might be empty, but there will always be someone to 'like' your rants on Facebook and because of those sheer numbers, fb is winning in terms of global time spent looking at its pages = looking at ads.
For me that's a viable enough model to risk a small portion of my assets.

[Waldorf]

I would not buy, whilst perhaps not the same as the dotcom bubble of 2000, a $1 billion profit on a $100 billion valuation is mad, whilst I am sure this will increase, I cannot see the valuation is justified.

[blinko]

I would not buy, whilst perhaps not the same as the dotcom bubble of 2000, a $1 billion profit on a $100 billion valuation is mad, whilst I am sure this will increase, I cannot see the valuation is justified.

Mainly due to the rate of growth of revenue and the MASSIVE 27% margin

Twitter and facebook will be as popular in the future as Myspace, Yahoo, Altavista and hotornot are today. But hey, its your money do what you think b

I do not think this will be the case, But the bottom line is internet companies that are massive and do a good job of providing a service eg Amazon, Facebook, google generally will be around for a long time

On top of that, facebook will only continue to attract users and has way too much market share to be knocked off position there are no real credible threats, no legal/political problems which can be reasonably forseen, its a buzz company

I think the shares will do well over the long term. In the short term I would expect themto rise 10 - 15% as every tom dick and larry grabs at them (incouding me) then probably swing down to a -20% to -25% to shake all the average joe and short term traders

Either way a piece of history in the making, an amazing and massive company coming to float will be interesting

with regards to the others I think that Myspace and Yahoo will remain on the fringes and eventually be taken over and possibly merged by say microsoft in a bid to challenge google. Yahoo at least changed there CEO recently so hopefully they will be able to change direction, but they will need to come up with some unique to challenge , microsoft/google/facebook etc although ironically megaupload has been shut down a possible opportunity....??

[blinko]

ps if you think facebook valuation is mad check out ARM Holdings !!