BN66 - Round 2 (Court of Appeal)

[DonkeyRhubarb]

I normally agree with everyhting you say Donkey -- however this time I dont!! We havent lost the case - people shouldnt be risking whatever money that they have in order to repay a debt that may not come due... fair enough if we where to lose then I dont blame anyone speculating large amounts on something risky .. however when we win I wouldnt want to hear of people who had a lost life savings trying to speculate on whatever!

Fair enough if you're only risking an affordable amount of savings but please dont speculate with the lot!!

I hear what you're saying and I wouldn't advocate risking everything either.

But if people wait, and we lose, then it will be too late for anything other than a trip to the Casino.

Speculation, even on the likes of AIM oilies, takes time.

Risk is a funny old thing. Sometimes avoiding it altogther can be more risky.

[screwthis]

I hear what you're saying and I wouldn't advocate risking everything either.

But if people wait, and we lose, then it will be too late for anything other than a trip to the Casino.

Speculation, even on the likes of AIM oilies, takes time.

Risk is a funny old thing. Sometimes avoiding it altogther can be more risky.

So what you're saying is sometimes you can gamble and win.. very true but it is largely dependant on luck unless you have a trading system with a proven edge (years and years of backtesting) plus correct money management etc.

Buying one or 10 stocks and hoping they go up is luck whether you win or loose.
Risk is still risk though.. It might be less profitable to do nothing but don't agree it is less risky.

[OnYourBikeGB]

So what you're saying is sometimes you can gamble and win.. very true but it is largely dependant on luck unless you have a trading system with a proven edge (years and years of backtesting) plus correct money management etc.

Buying one or 10 stocks and hoping they go up is luck whether you win or loose.
Risk is still risk though.. It might be less profitable to do nothing but don't agree it is less risky.

Having won and been burnt a few times in the past on stocks, all I can say is if it can go up by 30% in a day, it can go down by 30% in a day too. And I know, when it's dropping hard, nobody will want to buy. The whole situation stinks, that people have been forced into looking at speculation to make up the shortfall. I am extremely lucky (if you could call it that), by giving up any chance of a comfortable retirement and leaving my kids to fend for themselves, I can scrape it together if we lose, just. That's enough to tip me away from speculation. At some point, profit-taking will kick in, if you buy at the wrong time, then you could get hammered. If Japan fails to kick-start it's economy quickly, demand for oil will drop short-term and so will the price. If speculation has created a bubble, it could get messy. It's a risky business. If it was me, I'd bank some of the winnings, rather than let it ride. Unfortunately some of us are desperate, and it makes me sick to the core that HMRC through laziness, ineptitude and downright deception have made us so desperate. I have to say, if I was facing bankruptcy, I think I'd be in there too. There really is nothing to lose, and maybe even a little satisfaction from turning my pockets inside out and sticking two fingers up at hector. But if you can afford it, play with caution. Good luck to all.

[DonkeyRhubarb]

So what you're saying is sometimes you can gamble and win.. very true but it is largely dependant on luck unless you have a trading system with a proven edge (years and years of backtesting) plus correct money management etc.

Buying one or 10 stocks and hoping they go up is luck whether you win or loose.
Risk is still risk though.. It might be less profitable to do nothing but don't agree it is less risky.

A classic example of where lower risk turns out to be more risky is putting your money in a savings account which doesn't keep pace with inflation.

Personally I couldn't do what robinhood is doing because I would want some form of risk control (money management) in place, and that's very difficult with highly volatile AIM shares which can move double-digit% in a single day. The wide bid-ask spreads don't help either.

The plain fact is though that he's got more chance of meeting his liability dabbling in AIM oilies than sticking it in a savings account which won't even keep up with the interest HMRC are charging!!!

[SantaClaus]

I haven't been here for a while and noticed there's a big interest in speculation.

As some of you know, I started trading my own account 3 years ago and have only now started turning a profit. I have to warn anyone considering trading or speculating that it appears easy on the surface, but start looking underneath and you will find it extremely difficult.

The main reason is there are numerous psychological issues to overcome until you become profitable. Let me give you some examples:

If you've had a lucky win, the chances are your confidence has increased and you will put more risk on your next trade, only to see that trade eradicate your previous trade's winnings or even blow your account.

After a loss, your confidence will be low and you may find it hard to pull the trigger on the next trade even though the conditions were perfect. Or you may put less money on the trade which will unbalance your risk/reward ratio.

If you start trading for a living, you will get to your desk at 7am with a need to take a trade. After all, if you're not trading, you're not being productive and you're not earning money, right? ... WRONG! Trading is counter-intuitive, the less work you do, the more money you make. Sometime you will be paid in 10 minutes, other times a whole day of waiting will yield nothing. But we are conditioned through our working lives that being busy is good, when for trading the opposite is true.

If you are in a losing trade, your instinct will be to hold it in case it turns around. It's a natural instinct and a protection mechanism of the brain. The right course of action would be to take a small loss and close the trade early.

Conversely, if you are in a winning trade, the temptation is to close the trade to early and take some profit, especially if your last trade was a loser. However these actions will again, unbalance your risk/reward ratio and you will blow your account over time.

Other mistakes include closing and reversing your trades multiple times because you can't make up your mind what you see when price moves.

This is only the tip of the iceberg and I hope it shows any of you thinking of trading that it is difficult, requires a lot of time, patience and practice. You will not make money overnight, or not consistently anyway, unless you put in years of effort. But it can be extremely lucrative if you get it right, not to mention tax-free with spreadbetting.

[robinhood]

A classic example of where lower risk turns out to be more risky is putting your money in a savings account which doesn't keep pace with inflation.

Personally I couldn't do what robinhood is doing because I would want some form of risk control (money management) in place, and that's very difficult with highly volatile AIM shares which can move double-digit% in a single day. The wide bid-ask spreads don't help either.

The plain fact is though that he's got more chance of meeting his liability dabbling in AIM oilies than sticking it in a savings account which won't even keep up with the interest HMRC are charging!!!

unfortunately i think i've come across as a bit of a pin sticker as regards my strategy. I'm not and have many years experience in the stock market and work in the investment banking area. I have used the more traditional methods of trading and have done quite well. Unfortunately i spend far too much and don't have a hope of saving enough to pay off my liabilities !!
I spent a considerable amount of time looking into possible AIM (especially Oil) stocks with a view to getting what I would hope would get me a reasonable chance of paying off if not all my liabilities at least enough to use as an opening bargaining tool with HMRC.
2 of the shares chosen have subsequently appeared in the investors chronicle so i feel vindicated up to a point and as you say DR these oilies can be a far better option than sticking your money in a building society which really is a mugs game at this time.
I'm taking a risk but to be honest i don't think it's that big and i'm certainly not fretting on losing money especially in the long term.
In a years time we will see whether i made the right decision !!

[DonkeyRhubarb]

At least you know where you are with AIM stocks. There can be no nasty surprises because the risk is patently obvious.

Now contrast that with the "black swan" that's brought us all here.

[Maddog]

SOUND Advice

At least you know where you are with AIM stocks. There can be no nasty surprises because the risk is patently obvious.

Now contrast that with the "black swan" that's brought us all here.

And as we all deliberate the rights and wrongs of AIM stocks, SOU.L is up another 11% today...

I am sure the Well will run dry at some point, but thats my holiday money for Dubai sorted !!

[DonkeyRhubarb]

If only we'd known this at the time.

Now which is more risky, joining a scheme or speculating in AIM stocks?

Hmmm...

Contractor Benefit Trust

Disclaimer: It is possible that the Contracta Solutions structure may be challenged by HMRC in the future or retrospective legislation may be introduced

[MajorGowen]

So which one do you mean...

=•Am I 100% compliant?
Yes. The Contracta structure has been vetted by a number of reputable taxation experts and has been deemed as technically sound and above Revenue attack. Contracta is run by a team of professionals, and so there is no danger that your income will be classed as ‘tax avoidance’. If you have any doubt, call us and we talk you through the structure in person.

kind of disagrees with the disclaimer that DR pointed out:

=Disclaimer: It is possible that the Contracta Solutions structure may be challenged by HMRC in the future or retrospective legislation may be introduced.

So are they 100% compliant or not...

Now where's my barge pole?