IR35 New Chancellor

[NeedTheSunshine]

I don’t think CUK users have any special insights into the next chancellor Rumours

That said, Truss was supporting Boris from the start. She’s low tax, fiscal conservative. Javid is not yet publicly supporting anyone, but speculation is Boris. He’s less fiscally conservative, more open to heavy infrastructure spending, which is what Boris wants too. Javid is also more heavyweight. More likely Javid, but you’ll find similar speculation among the N journalists that know a shedload more than any of us.

You're right, it is just gossip. Some people do socialise with journalists and lobbyists though. I was a bit surprised at the JRM suggestion when I heard it.

Not long to find out I suppose. Anything could change in the next few weeks as they all jostle to get in favour with the winner for a decent role. Not that any one of the potential chancellors actually cares about contractors.

[jamesbrown]

I don’t think CUK users have any special insights into the next chancellor Rumours

That said, Truss was supporting Boris from the start. She’s low tax, fiscal conservative. Javid is not yet publicly supporting anyone, but speculation is Boris. He’s less fiscally conservative, more open to heavy infrastructure spending, which is what Boris wants too. Javid is also more heavyweight. More likely Javid, but you’ll find similar speculation among the N journalists that know a shedload more than any of us.

[WordIsBond]

Heads will explode at the BBC if it's JRM. It's possible he'd be one to look again at IR35. Whether he'd actually be good in the role, I don't know. I know what the Remainers in Parliament would think about it, but there's a lot more to being Chancellor than one's view on Brexit.

[NeedTheSunshine]

Very unlikely.

The ball was dropped in the early days of the leadership race. Contractor bodies should have been asking every candidate, when there were many of them, to commit to delay it for a year because of Brexit and to give time to reconsider if this is really the way forward.

When you have 10 candidates that are all looking to differentiate themselves and pick up support from somewhere, anywhere, you might have got one or two of them to make that commitment -- and once you get one or two it forces others to consider it.

They waited too late. BoJo doesn't need it to win and Hunt is looking for support from other places, from people who would increase taxes on contractors, for the most part. So there's no political reason for them to do what we'd like now, and no one is going to give it the focus, with everything else going on, to decide to do it because it is the right thing to do.

So it's only if we get a Chancellor that has already looked at it and said this is stupid. Then, we might get a delay.

Rumours I've heard are Liz Truss, not Javid, FWIW.

I agree with what you have said. Sadly, I do think it is too late.

I think Liz Truss was the favourite for chancellor at one time. However, if it's true she's team Mel Stride, then it won't be her. He was pushing for Gove to be PM.

I heard rumours it was between Sajid Javid (most likely) and JRM.

[Invisiblehand]

Rumours I've heard are Liz Truss, not Javid, FWIW.

I've also heard rumours of LT as well as JRM.

[TestMangler]

I think Liz Truss was on Team Stride and if she does become Chancellor, then we will see no changes.

To a large degree the "face" in number 11 is irrelevant.

Although I confess that the following has some gaps, my view is that the process works broadly as below.

A new Government meets in Cabinet and has Treasury "cost" their ideas. That costing is largely in the hands of Civil Servants. To no great surprise, the country cannot the promises made and there is a period of adjusting in which certain political promises are ditched without announcement and others are reduced. the end result is perhaps a little more realistic but still more than we can afford.

The Civil Servants at Treasury and HMRC then discuss a number of ideas to raise more money, or the same money more quickly. These are reviewed for political damage and the least damaging find their way to the Treasury for inclusion in the Finance Bill.

By the time this happens, the final version of whatever tax raising plan is required is almost entirely the work of Civil Servants and the politicians are just rubber stamping things - often without any thought for the collateral damage.

So we need to know who those Civil Servants are, what brief they have been given and how they fulfill that.

The name in Number 11 and their gopher crew is not really that important.

Thank goodness we'll soon be free of un-elected bureaucrats making our rules.......

[webberg]

I think Liz Truss was on Team Stride and if she does become Chancellor, then we will see no changes.

To a large degree the "face" in number 11 is irrelevant.

Although I confess that the following has some gaps, my view is that the process works broadly as below.

A new Government meets in Cabinet and has Treasury "cost" their ideas. That costing is largely in the hands of Civil Servants. To no great surprise, the country cannot the promises made and there is a period of adjusting in which certain political promises are ditched without announcement and others are reduced. the end result is perhaps a little more realistic but still more than we can afford.

The Civil Servants at Treasury and HMRC then discuss a number of ideas to raise more money, or the same money more quickly. These are reviewed for political damage and the least damaging find their way to the Treasury for inclusion in the Finance Bill.

By the time this happens, the final version of whatever tax raising plan is required is almost entirely the work of Civil Servants and the politicians are just rubber stamping things - often without any thought for the collateral damage.

So we need to know who those Civil Servants are, what brief they have been given and how they fulfill that.

The name in Number 11 and their gopher crew is not really that important.

[WordIsBond]

Very unlikely.

The ball was dropped in the early days of the leadership race. Contractor bodies should have been asking every candidate, when there were many of them, to commit to delay it for a year because of Brexit and to give time to reconsider if this is really the way forward.

When you have 10 candidates that are all looking to differentiate themselves and pick up support from somewhere, anywhere, you might have got one or two of them to make that commitment -- and once you get one or two it forces others to consider it.

They waited too late. BoJo doesn't need it to win and Hunt is looking for support from other places, from people who would increase taxes on contractors, for the most part. So there's no political reason for them to do what we'd like now, and no one is going to give it the focus, with everything else going on, to decide to do it because it is the right thing to do.

So it's only if we get a Chancellor that has already looked at it and said this is stupid. Then, we might get a delay.

Rumours I've heard are Liz Truss, not Javid, FWIW.

[Invisiblehand]

So if Bojo gets in then Sajid David looks like he will be taking up the post of chancellor. From what I've looked in to Sajid was on the committee in 2012 which identified pscs in the public sector and reviewed the quantity of IR35 investigations by HMRC.

We will get a budget in September it looks like.

With all the Brexit uncertainty and tax cutting that is being promised by the tories is anyone hopeful of a U-turn on this private sector reform as the damage to business could be massive.

Sent from my CLT-L09 using Contractor UK Forum mobile app

What makes you think Saj will get it?

[jamesbrown]

Nah. Look at Chief Secretaries and Financial Secretaries from Dim Prawn onwards and they all use exactly the same justifications, down to the form of words. There’s continuity across cretins. The best you can hope for is a delay IMHO.

[BrilloPad]

So if Bojo gets in then Sajid David looks like he will be taking up the post of chancellor. From what I've looked in to Sajid was on the committee in 2012 which identified pscs in the public sector and reviewed the quantity of IR35 investigations by HMRC.

We will get a budget in September it looks like.

With all the Brexit uncertainty and tax cutting that is being promised by the tories is anyone hopeful of a U-turn on this private sector reform as the damage to business could be massive.

Sent from my CLT-L09 using Contractor UK Forum mobile app

I hope your thinking is correct.

However the banks are rolling over already. And IT is still seen as being just glorified typists.

[headsy]

So if Bojo gets in then Sajid David looks like he will be taking up the post of chancellor. From what I've looked in to Sajid was on the committee in 2012 which identified pscs in the public sector and reviewed the quantity of IR35 investigations by HMRC.

We will get a budget in September it looks like.

With all the Brexit uncertainty and tax cutting that is being promised by the tories is anyone hopeful of a U-turn on this private sector reform as the damage to business could be massive.

Sent from my CLT-L09 using Contractor UK Forum mobile app