Reply to: When do I sell my London pad?

[OwlHoot]

There's certainly a bubble in the central London property market now, but most of the cash buyers have already swooped for this year and after Easter you'll be left with more mortgage-laden wannabes.

Also, although it will probably last until the election, it's worth remembering that property bubbles spread. So, assuming you won't be living in a cardboard box or emigrating, what counts is the relative price difference between your sale and purchase.

It's hard to answer your question without knowing where you are aiming to go. If this is further out in London I'd say go for it now before the bubble equalises. But if you're content to move to another town or out in the suburbs maybe wait until the start of next year, and ensure that by then your gaff is in tip-top condition and all your property documents are ready for a quick sale.

It's gratifying that a Money Week article on 2014-03-27 (which I swear I hadn't seen) said essentially the same thing

Now could be the perfect time for Londoners to sell up

[Ticktock]

Then move further out, QOL will go up.

No, don't. We don't like you London types 'round 'ere. We have our local shop for local people, and there'll be no trouble there.

[ZARDOZ]

People are still moving out of London into the Suburbs.

There aren't enough primary school places in lots of the Home Counties.

Then move further out, QOL will go up.

[edison]

Whatever happens, keep your London pad as in investment.
London is de-coupling from the rest of the UK and becoming a world city - this will be increasingly the pattern in the 21st century - large urban conurbations where the economic dynamism is concentrated.
And there'll always be a shortage of property in these economic hubs.

London became a 'world city' a long time ago. There have been a few studies in the last decade ranking cities according to global importance. New York and London are the top two cities in every one.

[SueEllen]

Fashion/trends come and go.
Go back a few decades and everyone was moving out of London and into the Suburbs. No doubt this will happen again at some point.

People are still moving out of London into the Suburbs.

There aren't enough primary school places in lots of the Home Counties.

[sasguru]

Fashion/trends come and go.
Go back a few decades and everyone was moving out of London and into the Suburbs. No doubt this will happen again at some point.

Yes but that was when London was unsuccessful, when the City was a closed shop, full of "Tom nice but Dims from Eton"
The reason for the flight to the suburbs then was inner-city blight.
Then from the late 80s onwards London changed and the reverse happened, the middle class gentrified the inner city, a process which is still going on.
Provided current policies are maintained I don't see any change in what is happening now.
But you're right if we had UKIP type protectionism we could go back to the bad old days.

[ZARDOZ]

Fashion/trends come and go.
Go back a few decades and everyone was moving out of London and into the Suburbs. No doubt this will happen again at some point.

[lukemg]

Anyone see that prog about London with Evan Davis ? Fascinating stuff, essentially its like an enormous snowball, sucking in all the talent and resources and this only results in it being more popular and growing again. It's not just the city although this has a big influence.
Add to this, relative stability means everyone with cash in anywhere dodgy all over the world is using London property as a secure bank account/bolthole when it all goes norks up at home and this gives a crazy market.
UK HAS to cash in on this, so no avoiding stamp duty (link this to the property regardless of who/what buys it) and ramp up the council tax on a sliding downscale from when you first purchase (so people who have been there forever but aren't wadded are still ok).
As for OP, it would depend on your circumstances but I don't see you missing the boat if you hang on for a couple of years at least and I wouldn't move to cash in unless you are going far out for good !

[sasguru]

Whatever happens, keep your London pad as in investment.
London is de-coupling from the rest of the UK and becoming a world city - this will be increasingly the pattern in the 21st century - large urban conurbations where the economic dynamism is concentrated.
And there'll always be a shortage of property in these economic hubs.

[sloverid]

Bah! This contractor forum app is a touch on the gash side

[sloverid]

WHS

This is probably the best advice

[Halo Jones]

the only thing that's certain is that no one really has a clue what's going to happen.

WHS

[edison]

Sorry for the late response. Not very social behaviour from the Op know.

There are some good points here and it's a bit of a dilemma. Obviously you can't really trust what the estate agents say but they told me that at the moment they've got a database full of people waiting for properties to come on the market and they do the open house 2 hour viewings and can get up to 40 people viewing. Give or take a pinch of salt. They also mentioned it's mostly European buyers at the moment and I suspect they are the Uber rich sort without mortgages.

It just find it difficult to believe that this can be sustained for too much longer without something happening and if I can make 300-400k after 3 years that's not too shabby. Might put it on the market next Jan.

Where in zone 1 are you? Even within zone 1 there are significant variances in the rate of increase.

I would say it is a bubble. How sustainable it is one can only guess.

As an illustration, I used to own a two bed ex-council flat in SW1 (traditionally the most desirable postcode in London) and sold it in 2005 for a large profit (or so I thought.) Its value continued to rise another 20-30% odd until around 2008/9 then levelled off during the financial crisis. I checked yesterday and similar ex-council flats in a less desirable part of SW1 are on the market at over £500k. For an ex-council flat. Madness.

Having said that, the mania is not limited to London it seems. I live in a desirable small town about 25 miles out of London. Our local primary school is absolutely outstanding and keeps prices high. I get a regular stream of notes from prospective buyers asking if I would sell my house. I spoke to one couple desperately looking and they told me they had seen a small house in my town (nice but nothing special) that had 37 viewings and several offers over the asking price.

Surely this can't be sustainable?

But then I said that in 2005!

[SueEllen]

Sorry for the late response. Not very social behaviour from the Op know.

There are some good points here and it's a bit of a dilemma. Obviously you can't really trust what the estate agents say but they told me that at the moment they've got a database full of people waiting for properties to come on the market and they do the open house 2 hour viewings and can get up to 40 people viewing. Give or take a pinch of salt. They also mentioned it's mostly European buyers at the moment and I suspect they are the Uber rich sort without mortgages.

It just find it difficult to believe that this can be sustained for too much longer without something happening and if I can make 300-400k after 3 years that's not too shabby. Might put it on the market next Jan.

There is a shortage of rental accommodation now and if the bubble bursts it won't increase the number of available rental properties as "normal" people won't be able to get mortgages. So if I was you I would try and keep your flat as a BTL for as long as possible.

[sloverid]

Sorry for the late response. Not very social behaviour from the Op know.

There are some good points here and it's a bit of a dilemma. Obviously you can't really trust what the estate agents say but they told me that at the moment they've got a database full of people waiting for properties to come on the market and they do the open house 2 hour viewings and can get up to 40 people viewing. Give or take a pinch of salt. They also mentioned it's mostly European buyers at the moment and I suspect they are the Uber rich sort without mortgages.

It just find it difficult to believe that this can be sustained for too much longer without something happening and if I can make 300-400k after 3 years that's not too shabby. Might put it on the market next Jan.