Is China about to go pop?

[BrilloPad]

Well, that's sort of the point. China's 10% growth has been sustained by debt for several years. Lots and lots and lots of it, the majority of which has been built up since 2008.

I cant ever see China getting their money back.

[doodab]

The only difference is that China's deflation is not fuelled by debt. So they can afford to slow down and rebuild from scratch, but the days of rapid growth are gone forever.

Well, that's sort of the point. China's 10% growth has been sustained by debt for several years. Lots and lots and lots of it, the majority of which has been built up since 2008.

"Most people are aware we've had a credit boom in China but they don't know the scale. At the beginning of all of this in 2008, the Chinese banking sector was roughly $10 trillion in size. Right now it's in the order of $24 to $25 trillion.

"That incremental increase of $14 to $15 trillion is the equivalent of the entire size of the US commercial banking sector, which took more than a century to build. So that means China will have replicated the entire US system in the span of half a decade."

[MicrosoftBob]

I thought the real concern was likely to be a war over oil rights by China with any number of neighbouring countries

With the rising anti Japanese sentiment being stoked by the Chinese government, it looks like they're readying scapegoats for when the economy nosedives

[BrilloPad]

China = USA

Their destinies are tied together. China is slowly sleepwalking into deflation (I swear Ed Milliband is not behind this statement).

The only difference is that China's deflation is not fuelled by debt. So they can afford to slow down and rebuild from scratch, but the days of rapid growth are gone forever.

They certainly both seem to like the death penalty.

[Gittins Gal]

Hmmm... inneresting.

This is a sentiment that Jeremy Warner and AEP of the Telegraph have been echoing for some time now.

I don't think I'll be watching the programme though - not unless Peston has brushed up on his presenting skills since the last time I watched him and decided never again.

[petergriffin]

China = USA

Their destinies are tied together. China is slowly sleepwalking into deflation (I swear Ed Milliband is not behind this statement).

The only difference is that China's deflation is not fuelled by debt. So they can afford to slow down and rebuild from scratch, but the days of rapid growth are gone forever.

[BrilloPad]

For most of the last thousand years living standards in East and West have been the same. Until the last 150 years. They are going to equalize again.

There might be some blips in the road - but still loads of growth left in the East.

Peston is such a twunt - but people like reading sensationalist nonsense so good luck to him.

[doodab]

BBC News - Will China shake the world again?

Interesting article, i might watch the show later. It sounds like if it goes it will make one hell of a bang.