Reply to: Oh Dear™: Interest Rates Up!

[Board Game Geek]

Pardon me for being ignorant, but surely, OPEC have a disaster recovery plan in the event of oil hitting $200/barrel ?

Surely someone, many many years ago must have said "'Ang on lads....I think we will have a spot of bother in 20-30 years time...this black oil stuff is going to run out, and the only countries left with considerable reserves are the dodgy ones who hate us.." At which point, someone would hopefully have said "No worries Fred...we've got our own stockpiles plus a few new countries coming online by then)

Or did that not happen ?

[hyperD]

OK, thanks LB, here's the thing (escuse brain after losing at a session of UT tonight - mainly down to 2 bottles of Vina Allarde Gran Reserva 1999)...

The time taken for society to take on board the new energy (nuclear, electricity, boiled rabbits, solar, friction etc) would dip the markets to a new low since the USA depression in the 1930-40's.

I see the economy on a knife edge: so many factors manipulated by the government to appease the masses that only a few can see that we are in for a raw time in the next few years.

That elastic band and brick analogy works sell here!

[Lucifer Box]

Morning LB - but would such a sudden rise cause tremendous upset on the markets which would trigger a global depression?

Evening, hD. Oh yes, I'm sure it would, as Zeity points out as it did before. But it would be the end of OPEC because this time the cost of alternative energy sources would be cheaper than oil, unlike in the 1970s. The rush to non-fossil fuel energy generation would be like nothing we've ever seen before. The only thing that has prevented this from happening is previous crises is that when all was said and done oil was still cheaper than the alternatives.

Of course, I may be talking tulipe.

[hyperD]

Morning LB - but would such a sudden rise cause tremendous upset on the markets which would trigger a global depression?

[Lucifer Box]

So you think youre doomed ..well you are now !

Iran Warns Oil Could
Reach $200 If Bush
Uses Sanctions
8-3-6


CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Global oil prices could hit $200 per barrel if the United States pursues international sanctions against Iran, an Iranian official said on Thursday, although analysts passed the comment off as saber rattling.

Iran's Foreign Relations Vice Minister Manuchehr Mohammadi told Venezuelan state television, "The first consequence of these sanctions would be an increase in the price of oil to around $200 per barrel."

The statement comes after the United Nations on Monday demanded that Iran suspend all nuclear development within a month or face the threat of sanctions. Iran responded that it had a sovereign right to nuclear development.

"Clearly Iran does not want to have sanctions imposed, so they want to convey the idea that the cost of these sanctions would be incredibly high," said Tim Evans, an Energy Analyst with Citigroup Futures Research

OPEC would never allow $200/barrel oil. At that price all the alternatives are cheaper and the rush to other sources of energy generation would begin. It would be the end of OPEC's stranglehold on the world economy.

[cameraman]

Hooray! 15% here we come!

I remember the late 80s and 15%. Boom and bust, bought my first house from someone who couldn't afford the repayments... Those were the days...

[AtW]

Iran needs $$$$ to keep paying North Koreans for their tech, so Iran will be selling oil if that's possible at all: would be rather strange for sanctions to allow them sell something that can be easily converted into serious war tech. But don't you worry great Russian President who was supported by his friend Bush and European leaders won't leave Iran on its own.

[AlfredJPruffock]

So you think youre doomed ..well you are now !

Iran Warns Oil Could
Reach $200 If Bush
Uses Sanctions
8-3-6


CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Global oil prices could hit $200 per barrel if the United States pursues international sanctions against Iran, an Iranian official said on Thursday, although analysts passed the comment off as saber rattling.

Iran's Foreign Relations Vice Minister Manuchehr Mohammadi told Venezuelan state television, "The first consequence of these sanctions would be an increase in the price of oil to around $200 per barrel."

The statement comes after the United Nations on Monday demanded that Iran suspend all nuclear development within a month or face the threat of sanctions. Iran responded that it had a sovereign right to nuclear development.

"Clearly Iran does not want to have sanctions imposed, so they want to convey the idea that the cost of these sanctions would be incredibly high," said Tim Evans, an Energy Analyst with Citigroup Futures Research

[Lucifer Box]

look at how many times US Federal Reserve increased rates in the last few years.

Years? Months, more like!

[AtW]

UK annual growth is quoted today at 3.5%

Modern western economies consist of more services than goods, so this 3.5% is increase in commissions of agents who sold houses that increased in price, basically bollox of the growth. Plus given inflation (that is seriously undercounted thanks to Brown) of 2.5% it means that real inflation-adjusted growth is less than 1%.

This growth is actually in line with Browns predictions, I doubt its any reason for increase in rates, they were just hanging around at the same level for too long - look at how many times US Federal Reserve increased rates in the last few years.

[Lucifer Box]

UK annual growth is quoted today at 3.5%

That is rather high, and part of the reason for the rate rise.

If annual growth is genuinely 3.5% (as opposed to a "government approved" figure), DaveB's prediction of 6% rates next year might not be far off the mark.

[wendigo100]

I am not sure there is any manufacturing left in this country to lobby anyone

UK annual growth is quoted today at 3.5%

That is rather high, and part of the reason for the rate rise.

[AlfredJPruffock]

Perhaps this rather gloomy outlook for the Global ecoonmy is giving the treasury boys some sleepness nights ..


Business leaders’ confidence slumps
By Lina Saigol in London

Published: August 2 2006 22:02 | Last updated: August 2 2006 22:02

Global business leaders are voicing concerns about deteriorating business conditions for the first time in three years, citing turbulent markets and an expected slowdown in the US.

The Goldman Sachs Confidence Index, which is based on chief executives’ assessments of business conditions and regarded as a leading indicator of corporate sentiment, has declined dramatically in the third quarter after buoyant readings in the past few quarters.


Since May, economists have been concerned that inflationary pressures have been increasing, while the outlook for US growth has deteriorated.

“There has been a change in sentiment. Chief executives appear more concerned about economic uncertainty than any time in recent quarters,” said Sandra Lawson, senior global economist at Goldman Sachs.

The index for the global business outlook has plunged from 71 in the second quarter to 42, well below 50 – the dividing line between executives who think conditions are improving and those who believe they are worsening. The deterioration was starkest in the US, where the index has fallen to 39 – its lowest level since 2002 and well below the four-year average. The decline in Europe has also been steep, plunging from 75 in the second quarter to just 43.

Unlike their European counterparts who favour cross-border deals, US chief executives still prefer domestic transactions. However, the Europeans are now citing political and regulatory intervention as an obstacle to cross-border deals.

“The large cross-border deals that we saw in 2000 are just not there and you have to wonder if that is to do with geo-political factors. People are keeping closer to home,” Mr Filek said.

[Francko]

Hey AtW, this might be your chance to finally get on the property ladder should property prices go down a bit. Perhaps they might lose 5-10% and then you can take a mortgage on a 15% fixed intererest rate for 25 years. Does it sound good?

[AtW]

I am not sure there is any manufacturing left in this country to lobby anyone - but they always want low rates - their views are not a factor at all because the only thing that matters is inflation.