Reply to: Forex market / Forex trading

[DimPrawn]

I found this interesting and it's something I've found over the last two years of forex trading and writing forex robots.

Exiting trades and money management are more important than entry position.

Further Musings on Randomness | Au.Tra.Sy blog - Automated trading System

[sasguru]

No, the thing is the more hocus pocus snake oil techniques you practice the more effectively random choices you make, and the more you ride your luck until one day it bites you in the arse because you don't actually understand what you are doing.

Let these thickos do what they want. It's Darwin at work.
One lives in Swindon and the other in Luton.
I rest my case.

[doodab]

The thing is, the more hocus pocus snake oil techniques I practice, the luckier I get.

No, the thing is the more hocus pocus snake oil techniques you practice the more effectively random choices you make, and the more you ride your luck until one day it bites you in the arse because you don't actually understand what you are doing.

[suityou01]

The point is that it doesn't prove your pet theory of why you succeeded.

It's all random. No patterns. The spin of a roulette wheel. All luck. The thing is, the more hocus pocus snake oil techniques I practice, the luckier I get.

[doodab]

Isn't it a bit silly saying just because you've made money doesn't prove anything?

A bit like saying just because you became a millionaire buying and selling houses/gold/fine art doesn't mean you've proved it's always profitable to do so?

The point is that it doesn't prove your pet theory of why you succeeded.

[DimPrawn]

Isn't it a bit silly saying just because you've made money doesn't prove anything?

A bit like saying just because you became a millionaire buying and selling houses/gold/fine art doesn't mean you've proved it's always profitable to do so?

[doodab]

Anyone who thinks that the fact they've made money proves anything needs to read Taleb's book "Fooled by Randomness." He used to schedule job interviews for money managers so that if they mentioned their track record he could terminate the interview after ten minutes. He thought anyone who mentioned their results was so clueless they were dangerous.

Kurt Vonnegut covered the same thing in The Sirens of Titan.

[IR35 Avoider]

I've read that the worst thing that can happen to a new trader is that they make money. Because then they'll think they know what they're doing.

Anyone who thinks that the fact they've made money proves anything needs to read Taleb's book "Fooled by Randomness." He used to schedule job interviews for money managers so that if they mentioned their track record he could terminate the interview after ten minutes. He thought anyone who mentioned their results was so clueless they were dangerous.

[doodab]

This is just the latest in a long line of 'get rich without working' schemes peddled by an industry that makes money out of you whether you win or lose. They have been doing it for years.

The only reason to **** about with forex trading is because you need some foreign money.

[DimPrawn]

Retail forex is like prison, one is glued to the screen, sleepless nights, finger nail biting.

Sounds more like CUK to me.

[istvan]

Forex? Hmmm!

Retail forex is like Las Vegas, except in Vegas you enjoy the experience, the ambiance, and the splendor. You get a cheep 3-4 day trip, a very good deal. Then you play and pay dearly and at the end you say, this trip was not cheep, but it was fun.

Retail forex is like prison, one is glued to the screen, sleepless nights, finger nail biting, etc. Yes, zero sum game. If one does not have enough money to cover the downside with high leverage accounts it is a gamble at best. Then you say this was not cheep, and certainly it was not fun at all.

I have to admit I never visited Vegas and experienced prison, but I tried forex trading.

I did not want to risk a lot, so I played it with 5,000 in 2010. Started in January and was up to 8,000 by June.

I was in heaven, but close to having a nervous breakdown. I decided that after I get my original investment back, I will keep trading until I become a millionaire. Sure!!! In June the market started to go crazy, all bets turned against me, and in a single day I lost close to 3,000. I got out of it and made about 150 quids in 6 months risking 5,000. Forex trading is not for the faint hearted, it was certainly not for me. I learned a lot about forex though, enough to not get enticed back again.

My advise is, if anybody cares: "do not try it at home" . Leave it to professionals.

[LatteLiberal]

How utterly random

Hindsight bias - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Yeah hindsight is amazing, it could have easily went in the other direction.

I don't know how many "gurus" I have seen showing a chart and explaining why this move or that move happened, all very plausible and makes sense.

I have to agree with Sasguru, you guys are pretty dim.

[sasguru]

Now the key is to stay on the trend and squeeze the life out of it.

Go for it. Come back when you're a millionaire - should be a matter of days



My sides are hurting now.

[DimPrawn]

Now the key is to stay on the trend and squeeze the life out of it.

[suityou01]

Yes I was long EURJPY and still am.

How utterly random