Reply to: House Prices

[Fungus]

I didn't realise houses in Swindon had windows.

I didn't realise Swindon had houses. Now why would someone wish to live there?

[tamper]

Mortgages? FFS we're contractors aren't we? What do you want to saddle yourself with a mortgage for? They are for permies, surely....

Is this because we're contractors, ergo 'loadsamoney' boors with such a large pile of cash that we never stoop to borrowing? Or is there a mortgage alternative borrowing solution I'm not thinking about?

[ASB]

Lets take a look at Japan from 1980 to 2005. After 25 years commencing in 1980 house prices in Japan finish exactly where they started.

Wrong. Possibly.

I can't be bothered to find the data to be sure but in YEN terms housing in japan was worth about the same in 2005 as it was in 1980. But during this period Japan [probably] suffered overall deflation. Thus there was probably still a positive uplift in that the purchasing power of said money had increased due to deflation.

[threaded]

Irrespective of the above, grey slates will remain grey slates.

Unless it rains, and then they go black.

Or a seagull poohs on them, then they go white.

[AlfredJPruffock]

Property Prices for Dummies

One reads endless debates on this site about property prices.

So I propose to end the debate for once and for all.

Property Prices will either

Rise

Fall

Or remain the same.

Irrespective of the above, grey slates will remain grey slates.

[wendigo100]

Houses falling in value. Never!

Certainly not while our population is increasing.

If Japan had opened the immigration floodgates to all and sundry, their property would become a scarcer resource as well.

Of course, that pre-supposes that as many people would want to move there as seem to want to come here.

[DimPrawn]

The number of home sales in England and Wales has jumped by 37% over the past year, the Land Registry has said, as the housing market pick-up continues.
Prices in England and Wales rose 5.05% in the year to 31 March, the registry said, to an average of £192,745.

Wealthy City financiers and foreign buyers pushed London prices 6% higher to more than £300,000 on average.


Houses falling in value. Never!

[NoddY]

I didn't realise houses in Swindon had windows.

[DimPrawn]

Not so much living, more existing.

[eternalnomad]

Last time I looked out of the window, I was living in Swindon, not Tokyo.

Swindon...you have my sympathies Mr Prawn

[DimPrawn]

An interesting post ASB (thanks for that), however Shaunbhoys claim is not safe.

Lets take a look at Japan from 1980 to 2005. After 25 years commencing in 1980 house prices in Japan finish exactly where they started.

Last time I looked out of the window, I was living in Swindon, not Tokyo.

[eternalnomad]

I think you're pretty safe..

An interesting post ASB (thanks for that), however Shaunbhoys claim is not safe.

Lets take a look at Japan from 1980 to 2005. After 25 years commencing in 1980 house prices in Japan finish exactly where they started.



*Yes, I know the graph only goes to 2004 so if you want the data for 2005 take a look at the addtional data below (which shows things didnt get "any better" for Japanese property in 2005)

[ASB]

Well show me a 25-year period when they have fallen then smarta*se! Or else stop waffling like Margaret Beckett!!

I think you're pretty safe.

'74-'96 is only 22 years. In this period the index rose from 20.4 to 110.1 but this was largely due to inflation (an average of about 7.5%). By comparison the price index (http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib...9/rp99-020.pdf) changed from 100 to 555.2 (which is 20.4 to 113.26). This was a fall in real terms.

Between '74-'99 the nationwide index for northen property changes from 17.4 to 111.9. (7.7% per year). By comparsion the price index (to 98) changes from 17.4 to 103.06.

Over the last 30 years prices have "only" doubled in real terms (although most of that is in the last 10 years).

There is no easily available average data predating '73. Since inflation is a modern phenomeno (total inflation between 1750 and 1938 was only around 300% - 0.6% PA) this is probably the place to look. There were very substantial price falls in the latter half of the 19th century, given the low level of inflation there is a reasonable chance of 25 years with a fall in real terms. Unfortunately it is difficult to find any reference data.

[eternalnomad]

Another stick you have hold of the wrong end of. And it would take more than a lightweight like you to offend me sonny!

Next!!

I am glad I havent caused any offence because that would put me in your league.

[shaunbhoy]

I take it that you are not factually certain they always go up then !

Well show me a 25-year period when they have fallen then smarta*se! Or else stop waffling like Margaret Beckett!!

I seemed to have offended you in some way.....so as you insist on slinging personal insults around I can only conclude it must be the "wrong time of the month" for you

Another stick you have hold of the wrong end of. And it would take more than a lightweight like you to offend me sonny!

Next!!